Birmingham v Luton

Championship 29 December

Birmingham v Luton 7.45 KO

Luton have lost their last six away games which suggests that Birmingham are nailed on at a best priced 2/5 to win at home this evening. In the Championship however, there are NO teams that would tempt me at that price. It is however, worth looking at the betting a little deeper to unearth some value.

Half-Time Full-Time double result betting many would argue is the quickest route to handing your hard earned money over to the Bookies. And, unless you do your homework, that is broadly speaking, true.

There are nine different HT/FT double result possibilities. Birmingham, who will surely go on to regain Premiership status, have won HT/FT six times this season. They have also Draw - Win HT/FT six times this year. How about Luton? Well, they've a record to flinch at, Draw - Loss HT/FT five times and Loss-Loss HT/FT five times.

Birmingham are 2.32 (Betfair) to win HT/FT (£10 stake returns £23.20 inc returned stake)
Birmingham are 4.9 (Betfair) to Draw - Win HT/FT (£10 stake returns £49 inc returned stake)

a) Assuming you place both bets and Birmingham win HT/FT you win £13.20 - £10 = £3.20 profit
b) Assuming you place both bets and Birmingham Draw - Win HT/FT you win £39.00 - £10 = £29 profit

Of course, if you do (a) and (b) above and Birmingham win HT/FT you could argue that 2/5 the home win would have been a better bet as it returns £4 for a £10 stake. HT/FT betting is great if you are confident that your favourite will ultimately win the game and you place your bets to have one with big upside and one for cover.

Keep stakes sensible and grab a free bet here.

Charlton v Fulham

Charlton v Fulham

As we have said previously on these very pages Charlton Athletic are very poor indeed. Will a new boss in the shape of Alan Pardew save their season? We doubt it.
He may, however, improve on Les Reed's abysmal 41-day record of one win, one draw and six defeats in eight League and Cup matches though - that's just four points out of a possible 21 available. But we don't mean 'improve' the points tally as such just the 41 days in the job!

The Addicks are poor at the back (33 conceded), eight points from safety and will be looking to beat Fulham for the first time in five Premiership meetings. They have lost all their games in the capital this year while Fulham have won two, drawn two and lost one of their five London Premiership derbies so far this season.

Fulham haven't got much 'game' away from Craven Cottage and have an away record this year of one win, four draws and four losses.

top5tip Lay Charlton at 2.50 Betfair

Inverness CT v Rangers

Rangers striker Dado Prso is rated doubtful for the trip to Inverness with a groin injury. And with Big Dado missing Paul Le Guen's team will be in for a tough game away from home. Caley Thistle have had Draw-Draw 'half-time/full-time' results seven times this season (Rangers four times) and you can get 6.4 Draw -Draw with Betfair

Premiership at Xmas

FIXTURES

Saturday, 23 December 2006

Barclays Premiership
Arsenal v Blackburn, 15:00
Aston Villa v Man Utd, 15:00
Fulham v West Ham, 12:45
Liverpool v Watford, 15:00
Man City v Bolton, 15:00
Middlesbrough v Charlton, 15:00
Newcastle v Tottenham, 15:00
Portsmouth v Sheff Utd, 15:00
Reading v Everton, 15:00
Wigan v Chelsea, 17:15

top5focus
Newcastle v Tottenham, 15:00
Middlesbrough v Charlton, 15:00

Newcastle v Tottenham, 15:00

Newcastle United will be going for a fourth successive home Premiership win, while Spurs will be looking for a sixth successive win in League and Cup. Despite their 1-0 reverse against Chelsea, Newcastle are a somewhat rejuvenated team with their new number 9, Martins, beginning to find his feet at last. Outside the top three Spurs are the most in form club with 13 points from a possible 18. Form, outside the top 3 clubs, is almost always a temporary thing though so top5bet can see a hard fought draw as the most likely outcome at St James Park.

Both Newcastle and Spurs have played out Draw Half Time - Draw Full Time double results eight times between them (4 each) and so that is the bet to take.

HT-FT draw - draw 5.2 Betfair

Middlesbrough v Charlton, 15:00

Two very poor team will do little to raise Xmas spirits on Saturday in terms of a footy spectacle. Having watched Charlton live against Liverpool last weekend it is safe to say they are looking for a miracle - in keeping with Christmas - to avoid the drop. Having said that, only goal difference is keeping Gareth Southgates's boys out of the bottom three. They will be determined to get the win against Charlton in order to go into their holiday fixtures with some momentum. Following the Boxing Day visit to Everton, the Riversiders go to 16th placed Blackburn, then play Neil Warnock's 15th placed Sheffield United on New Years Day. The stats suggest Draw half-time Boro' full-time and 2-1 home win.

HT-FT Draw - Middlesbrough 5.1 Betfair
Correct Score 2-1 Middlesbrough

Merry Christmas and Happy Punting!

Middlesbrough v Fulham

top5bet went to see the Charlton v Liverpool game on Saturday. It really was like watching Stevie and Co. in a training match and should have been a lot more than 3-0 to Liverpool. A couple of pieces of magic from Bellamy and Gerrard - who was given a central midfield berth from which to control the game - gave the scoreline a more accurate reflection of events on the pitch.

Charlton are long odds on to go down (1.32 Betfair) and on this showing they will most certainly be playing in the Championship next year. They were truly awful and Les Reed hardly inspires confidence in a recovery.

Anyway, on to more pressing issues...

Premiership 18 December 2006, Fulham v Middlesbrough

A quick run through...

Fulham have won 2-1 at home four times this season and Middlesbrough have lost by the same score away from home three times. Chris Coleman's charges have won four of the five Premiership meetings between the sides in London. Middlesbrough have gone 12 Premiership away games without a win. There is a certain inconsistent symmetry about Fulham's recent home form. It goes like this, W-L-W-L-W-L-W. So, should be an away win? Well, given Boro's miserable away form I think Fulham will break their win loss, win loss routine tonight.

top5bet tip: Home win for Fulham (and if correct score is your thing 2-1 looks reasonable). Draw - Win for Fulham looks a reasonable shout too.

FULHAM HT : FT
Win - Win, 3
Win - Draw, 0
Win - Loss, 0
Draw - Win, 6
Draw - Draw, 3
Draw - Loss, 3
Loss - Win, 0
Loss - Draw, 1
Loss - Loss, 4

Middlesbrough FC HT : FT
Win - Win, 2
Win - Draw, 2
Win - Loss, 0
Draw - Win, 2
Draw - Draw, 3
Draw - Loss, 4
Loss - Win, 0
Loss - Draw, 1
Loss - Loss, 6

Free Bets, Premiership Betting

Remember to grab your free bets this weekend and make a killing on the two top5bet games in focus; they are: Charlton v Liverpool and Reading v Blackburn

Charlton v Liverpool
Rafa' Benitez could well rely on the dynamic duo of Craig Bellamy and Dirk Kuyt at Charlton this weekend to improve the Reds dismal away record. Scott Carson is unable to play as Liverpool pay his wages so Charlton will no doubt be dreadful. Dreadful, but will no doubt scrap for their lives to try and get something out of the game. With Liverpool's recent revival though top5bet can see a 1-0 away win for Liverpool.



For those that like that sort of thing, Liverpool look like this in numbers...

Last 20 Liverpool games, result at half time and full time:
Win - Win 8 Games
Win - Draw 0 Games
Win - Loss 0 Games
Draw - Win 4 Games
Draw - Draw 2 Games
Draw - Loss 0 Game
Loss - Win 0 Game
Loss - Draw 1 Game
Loss - Loss 5 Games

The Liverpool story continued 2006 / 2007
Average goals scored (Home 2, Away 0.6)
Average goals conceded (Home 0.3, Away 1.5)
Average time first goal scored (Home 46 mins, 40 mins)
Average time first goal conceded (Home 28 mins, Away 37 mins)
Average yellow cards (Home 0.9, Away 2)
Average red cards - 0
Average subs used (Home 2.7, Away 2.8)
Biggest victory 4-0 (one home, one away)
Biggest defeat - 3-0



Reading v Blackburn
Reading have won their last three at home and have taken 13 points from the last possible 18. Blackburn, on the other hand have only taken 4 points in the same period but will no doubt be buoyed by the win over Nancy in midweek.



Go for the draw as Blackburn maintain there awful disciplinary record and fight and scrap for everything to share the points.

Fixtures in Full...

Saturday, 16 December 2006

Barclays Premiership
Arsenal v Portsmouth, 15:00
Aston Villa v Bolton, 17:15
Charlton v Liverpool, 12:45
Newcastle v Watford, 15:00
Reading v Blackburn, 15:00
Wigan v Sheff Utd, 15:00




Barclays Premiership
Everton v Chelsea, 13:45
Man City v Tottenham, 15:00
West Ham v Man Utd, 16:00

UEFA Cup, Thursday 15th Dec

I just cannot get excited about the UEFA Cup. Looking at the fixtures makes my eyes bleed. It truly is a poor second to the Champions League and should be shot like a the wounded animal it is.

Anyway, Paul Le Guen is resting captain Barry Ferguson because he is one booking away from suspension and already through to the last 32. Forward Kris Boyd remains sidelined with an ankle injury and defender Papac is cup-tied.

Partizan have got a young side and are quite frankly not very good. But with Rangers already through - despite having a very ordinary season - I can only see Laying Rangers at 1.54 as the value bet. I think if they needed to win they would have Ferguson in the team and they would win it. But they don't. And so I reckon this will be a draw.

top5bet tip: Lay Rangers at 1.54

UEFA Cup

Auxerre v Livorno, 19:45
Bayer Leverkusen v Besiktas, 19:30
Braga v Grasshoppers, 19:45
Heerenveen v Lens, 19:45
Parma v Osasuna, 19:45
Rangers v Partizan Belgrade, 19:45
Sevilla v AZ, 19:45
Tottenham v Dinamo Bucuresti, 19:45

FA Cup, Premiership and the UEFA Cup, Midweek

It's footy all the way this ‘midweek’ as there's live action from the FA Cup, Premiership and the UEFA Cup.

At top5bet we have logs on the fire and gifts on the tree, well a Fixed odds and Free Bets equivalent. For your Free Bet from Santa click here.

Tonight in the FA Cup Conference South side Salisbury await a big pay day when they go to former European Champions and League One leaders Nottingham Forest in their FA Cup second round replay. The Whites held Colin Calderwood's side to a 1-1 draw nine days ago and are best price 16/1 with bookmakers and 24.0 (23/1) on Betfair to cause the shock with Forest 1/5. I wouldn't bother, Forest will put them away at home and a 2-0 or 3-0 correct score is the shout.

top5bet tip: Forest to win 2-0 - small stakes advised

Tuesday, 12 December 2006

FA Cup Matches

Basingstoke v Aldershot, 19:45
Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers, 19:45
Chester v Bury, 19:45
Doncaster v Mansfield, 19:45
Leyton Orient v Torquay, 19:45
Millwall v Bradford, 19:45
Nottingham Forest v Salisbury, 19:45

Barclays Premiership

CHELSEA dropped two points at home to Arsenal at the weekend and find themselves eight points adrift from Rooney and Co. Newcastle are undefeated in eight League and Cup matches. Watch that record come to a grinding halt tomorrow night.

top5bet tip: Back the Draw – Chelsea HT/FT result at 5.0 or better, Betfair

Arsenal did the double against Wigan last season but I can see Wigan getting a point against the Gunners this time around. Lay Arsenal at 1.80 or better at Betfair.

As an aside Arsenal Chairman Peter Hill-Wood says on the BBC website that the Gunners do not rely too heavily on striker Thierry Henry. Just goes to show, you don’t need to know anything about football to be Chairman of a club.

top5bet tip: Lay Arsenal at 1.80 or better with Betfair


Barclays Premiership - Weds 13 December 2006

Chelsea v Newcastle, 19:45
Wigan v Arsenal, 19:45


UEFA Cup

The UEFA Cup is a rubbish competition and I wouldn’t bet on finding many winners in this lot – see below for fixtures. I thought Mlada Boleslav was the Kazakhstan Prime Minister! It’s actually the home of Skoda Cars and an ordinary football team.

UEFA Cup - Weds 13 December 2006

BLACKBURN v AS Nancy, 19:45
Espanyol v Austria Magna, 19:45
Fenerbahce v Eintracht Frankfurt, 19:45
Feyenoord v Wisla Krakow, 19:45
Hapoel Tel-Aviv v Mlada Boleslav, 19:45
PSG v Panathinaikos, 19:45
Palermo v Celta Vigo, 19:45
Zulte-Waregem v Ajax, 19:45

More on Thursday’s UEFA cup action later…

Public Votes: BBC Sports Personality

"Looking at the trophy, I'm pretty sure it's the same one my mother won. I can't believe my name's on it along with all those other famous people. I'm so surprised to have won. Ours is such a small sport."

This was Zara Phillip's reaction on winning the BBC Sports Personality Award. Her self-awareness is not in question and I am sure her sentiment was shared by Joe Calzaghe, the unbeaten WBO & IBF* Super Middlewieght Champion of the World. Calzaghe has been a champion for nine years and in 2006 defeated the unbeaten American Jeff Lacy in a superb display of boxing. Calzaghe's demolition of Lacy - which unified the WBO and IBF belts - catapulted him into the top 10 pound-for-pound fighters on the planet.

This however, did not stop the British Public from voting in their droves for Phillip's who took a third of the entire vote. In second and third-placed respectively - Ryder Cup hero Darren Clarke and gymnast Beth Tweddle. Yes, Calzaghe didn't even get a top three finish.

On Betfair (Saturday 9th Dec') you could've backed Darren Clarke at 1.47 to win 'Sports Personality'. Clarke, who played in Europe's Ryder Cup victory just weeks after the death of his wife Heather from cancer, secured 21% of the vote, while Tweddle earned 12%. Clarke would have been a worthy winner but wanted to win on merit rather than an outpouring of sympathy much to his credit. At 1.48 I decided to lay Clarke, believing that Calzaghe would pip him to the post.

When Phillip's was announced as the winner I didn't know whether to laugh or cry. It was like a boxer who felt sure he'd won on points only for the decision to go against him much to everyone's surprise. Yes I won my dosh but I won't be betting on anything that requires a public vote in future. Far too unpredictable even when you win!

*IBF Belt relinquished

When Saturday Comes

A quick preview of this weekends Premiership Fixtures.

SATURDAY FIXTURES

Blackburn v Newcastle
Not really a game to get excited about. Well I'm not. Expect a low scoring scrappy affair and under 2.5 goals.

T5B prediction: Draw at 9-4, (or Lay Blackburn) Under 2.5 Goals

Bolton v West Ham
West Ham haven’t scored away for more than 10 frustrating hours while Bolton average just a goal a game. Away teams never get much change out of Bolton so 1-0 to the Trotters is the call.

T5B prediction: 1-0 Correct Score

Liverpool v Fulham
After taking Wigan to the cleaners last week confidence in the league will be high. Fulham should be rolled over in this one but at a best priced 4-11 not one to be touched on the fixed odds coupon.

T5B Prediction: 2-0 Correct Score, Under 2.5 Goals

Man Utd v Man City
Despite being a derby it is hard to see past a comfortable win for the red devils. Man City's away record is awful and against the table topping red half of the city it won't be improving this weekend. Expect goals, over 2.5 is the shout.

T5B prediction: Over 2.5 Goals

Middlesbrough v Wigan
A game that wouldn't look out of place in the Championship. Okay that's harsh, but certainly not a game for the purist. Another scrappy game with Middlesbrough picking up three points in a close affair.

T5B Prediction: Middlesbrough Home Win 11-10

Portsmouth v Everton
Two teams at the right end of the table. Expect a draw in a hard fought end to end encounter.

T5B Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals

Tottenham v Charlton
If last weeks performance against Arsenal is anything to go by Charlton might just be in with a chance here. But I doubt it, they are awful. 2-1 to the Spurs.

T5B Prediction: 2-1 Correct Score

Watford v Reading
A game Watford must win. Well, they really need to win all of them to stand any chance of staying up but they won't. Lots of draws at home for the Hornets and that must be the shout at 9-4.

T5B Prediction: Draw at 9-4

SUNDAY FIXTURES

Chelsea v Arsenal
Chelsea to thump Arsenal at 8-11 Bet 365. When I say thump, I mean 2-0. Go under 2.5 goals, Chelsea will take the lead and then defend it.

T5B prediction: Chelsea 8-11, Under 2.5 Goals

MONDAY FIXTURES

Sheff Utd v Aston Villa
Aston Villa have drawn six out of eight away games and Sheff Utd will continue to fight for their lives. Low scoring draw the call from me.

T5B prediction: Lay Sheff Utd with Betfair 2.8

Bad traffic & 'match fixing'

As I noted in my entry on the 30 November we have bought some space on Pixelotto.com, which launched on the 5th December. If you haven’t heard - or so you don't have to go back to the 30 Nov entry - pixelotto is the next scheme from Alex Tew, who created the Million Dollar Homepage. This time he is done something similar (i.e auctioning off a million pixels worth of ads, this time at $2.00 a pixel).

Early signs are that you can get traffic, in volume, but it is not the sort of traffic that converts. They are 'frenzied clickers' who simply want a piece of the $1,000,000 dollar prize potential. We kinda knew this but if even 1% (of our forecast traffic levels) do convert (0.05% for that matter) we will have broken even and then some, so an interesting experiment. I will let you know the end result when the site has it's first draw. We are not currently running AdSense (or similar) so we are not in danger of being banned from attracting this type of traffic to the site which I understand is a possibility.

On to something completely different:

I reckon the Champions League format has got to change. The 'draw' in the Arsenal v Porto game last night - on www.betfair.co.uk - was 1.87 just before kick off. And guess what, the game ended 0-0. A result which guaranteed both teams progress to the profitable latter stages of the Champions League. Great for their £££ but not great for football, or the tournament, or the advertisers, or the sponsors, or the organisers or most importantly the fans. Integrity went well and truly out of the window.

Non-triers in horse racing get banned and quite rightly so. It would be naive to think there could have been another outcome to this match and I am not sure how we get around such situations but watching that game left a very bad taste in the mouth.

Gambling needs competition, so if you take out anything from the Arsenal Porto game it is to do your homework and ensure you are betting on competitive events.