Monday, 31 December 2007

New Year's Day Premiership Football Picks

Premiership - value football betting

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.

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Barclays Premiership

Fulham v LAY Chelsea 1.59

LAY Arsenal 1.37 v West Ham

LAY Manchester United 1.18 v Birmingham City

LAY Middlesbrough 3.5 v Everton

LAY Reading 2.94 v Portsmouth

BACK Aston Villa 2.62 v Tottenham Hotspur

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Middlesbrough v Everton market and you LAY Middlesbrough, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Middlesbrough. In this instance as near to 3.5 (12/5) as you can get. If Middlesbrough don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Middlesbrough win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet (up to £100 Free Bet) - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes
...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Friday, 28 December 2007

What not to do when gambling

It's time to lay 2007 and back 2008 and that means New Year Resolutions. Rather than cover sensible resolutions - which go by the way-side quicker than a ten team acca - I thought I'd take a sideways look on the world of betting and suggest ten ways to guarantee losing money in 2008. You'll probably recognise a few of these! If you do, it could be time for a re-think on your betting strategy for the New Year.

1. Bet big and always more than you can afford to lose. This is the most efficient way of all to get rid of all your unwanted cash. Gamble with the rent / mortgage payment, the grocery money, or the kids school fees. Risking more than you can afford to lose will clear all those debts in no time - won't it?

2. Throw good money after bad. You know, keep upping the size of your bets. Progressive betting systems are the most effective way to the poor house. If you think doubling up is a sure fire way to get even after a losing streak, or doubling up to get a bigger win you may run into trouble in knowing when to stop. The complete loss of betting bank is usually the surest sign so you do get help. If you start thinking there is no point in winning a tenner when you could win a hundred or even a thousand quid it's an indication that you have a problem with gambling. What the hell, it's Christmas.

3. Betting on a whim or a hunch. You can feel it in your water can't you? Today is going to be your day. You're going to up your stakes and lump on, let's see now, say Derby to beat Blackburn - they're due a win aren't they? If you feel like you're 'due' a winning day, increase the size of your bets. Let's face it the last time you had that feeling it came true didn't it?

4. Lay lots of ante-post and accumulator bets. They come in from time to time don't they? Bound to happen again. Small stake, big return bets are seductive but are the best way to lighten your pocket and subsequently line the pockets of bookmakers and layers on Exchanges. If you are the type to lay a regular five-timer acca on the footy you are the sort of person that bookmakers love. It's you, after all, that guarantees their handsome profits.

5. Gamble when drunk. Needs no explanation. It just makes sense. Until you wake up the next day. You log into your betting account and see you have wiped out your betting bank. Oh well, you had a good time.

6. Pay for advice from internet 'experts' with claims of guaranteed profits. It will probably be called 'operation easy win' or 'sports betting for winners'. And you're a winner aren't you? There's loads of 'secret' winning punters out there who have left their jobs because they can earn fifty grand a year for only one hours work per day. Loopholes abound you see and you're not bright enough to work them out so hand over your money because that's the best way to make serious cash. Go ahead, they're experts and they've back tested their research so it's bound to work in the future. Didn't go as planned? That's a shame cos' they pinky promised didn't they?

7. Research is for sissies so don't waste your time. You don't need advice from anybody. Trust me. You know what you're doing so get lumpy. Expert opinion with a bit of background research to qualify your confidence in a bet? You don't need it. You're a natural.

8. Shout about the size of your bets down the pub. Ladies love it. You must have money if you can afford to bet big. Trouble is, the type of person who shouts about their betting prowess and sure things that can't fail to win are generally suffering from low self esteem which will be a lot lower when they start losing big too. Do it. It beats buying a big engined soft top.

9. Convince yourself you'll get it right eventually. It's only a losing streak. You'll come good. You know too much. You've won before. You can beat the spread or over-round because you're you. Keep on betting until you're broke and your wife leaves you to go out with your neighbour - and he doesn't even gamble. You don't want to be a wimp after all, do you? Upping your stakes might help.

10. Lucky rabbits foot. You're a lucky guy. Remember that time you won a box of Turkish delight in the village hall raffle after throwing salt over your shoulder? Always have been lucky. Just as long as you wear your lucky pants / socks (Delete as appropriate). Being superstitious is a sure fire way to build the betting bank. You're a Gemini, your favourite player's a Gemini he's bound to be first goal scorer today. Put the mortgage on it. And if that fails you can always chase your bets.

Happy New Year and Good luck for 2008!
top5bet.com

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Bookmakers to have in your locker in 2008 to ensure best price action (FREE BETS where applicable) or visit top5bet.com for more information.

VCBet (up to £100 Free Bet) - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Thursday, 27 December 2007

Tonight's Premiership Football

Manchester City v Blackburn Rovers

Kick-off: 1945

Manchester City have not had much success in this fixture over the past few seasons. We have to go back ten games to find a Manchester City victory. That was a 3-2 away win in 03/04. It is 15 games since they recorded a home victory against Rovers, a 2-0 win in 99/00.

This is, however, a different Manchester City. They are lying fifth in the table with a game in hand and it is because they have made Eastlands a fortress. Played nine, won nine. That's right, no points dropped at home this season. Away from home it is a different story of course with only one win, four draws and four losses.

The trouble with their nine wins is, the longer the run, the nearer its end which is why I'd take a dogged Blackburn side to snatch at least a draw this evening.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Manchester City 2.36 (11/8) (Betfair)

Friday, 21 December 2007

Weekend Premiership Picks

Arsenal v Tottenham kick off this weekend's action at the Emirates Stadium. Sunday has some great match ups including Man Utd v Everton, Newcastle v Derby and Blackburn v Chelsea at Ewood Park.

Saturday’s Premiership Football

Arsenal v Tottenham – Live on Sky Sports 1, k/o 12:45pm

The Premiership kicks off with the 157th North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham. Arsenal have recovered their composure since their shock reversal away to Middlesbrough, winning the last 3 games, including an important victory against fellow title rivals Chelsea. Spurs have also enjoyed a positive renewal - of sorts - under new coach Juande Ramos, having won 7 of their last 12 games. Betfair list Arsenal as favourites for this match at 1.53 (8/15) to BACK 1.54 to LAY. Spurs are listed at 8.0 (7/1) to pull off a surprise away win. The draw is a 4.5 (7/2) shot to BACK and 4.6 to LAY.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Arsenal 1.54

Sunday’s Premiership Football

Man Utd v Everton – Live on Setanta Sports 1, k/o 12:00pm

Manchester United are currently on a 3 match winning run, having recently beaten and outplayed fierce rivals Liverpool. Everton, who are also showing some form, are currently enjoying a 7 match unbeaten run, recently beating West Ham 2-0 at Upton Park and snatching an away win at AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Cup. With both teams in great form and playing free flowing football, this match really will be one to watch. Man Utd are currently listed on Betting Exchange Betfair as favourites for this match at 1.42 (2/5) to BACK 1.43 to LAY (4/9), whereas Everton are being offered at 9.8 (9/1) to continue their current rich vein of form.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Manchester United 1.43

Newcastle v Derby – Live on Sky Sports 1, k/o 2:00pm

Derby have only managed one win this season and it was against a shoddy Newcastle in October. The game was awful and won by a Kenny Miller belter. This game should have a very different outcome with Newcastle slowly finding their feet under the guidance of Sam Allardyce. They have taken 7 points from the last 3 games and Derby can expect a torrid afternoon with very little festive cheer. As you would expect against the leagues whipping boys Newcastle have been listed at 1.38 (4/11) to BACK and 1.39 (2/5) to LAY to continue their winning run. Punters are giving Derby little chance of getting the 3 points at 11.0 (10/1).

RECOMMENDATION
NO BET

Blackburn v Chelsea – Live on Sky Sports 1, k/o 4:10pm

Blackburn go into this match with the strong possibility of achieving the miserable feat of three straight Premier League defeats. Another reversal would threaten all the good work by Mark Hughes men earlier in the season. Chelsea suffered their first loss in 15 games against table-toppers Arsenal last weekend, and the Blues will be looking to bounce back straight away to maintain their title push. We can expect a dirty game as both teams are not that big on discipline as gauged by a total of 79 cards being shown to Blackburn and Chelsea players in a combined total of 34 league fixtures this season. Chelsea are favourites for this match, with Betfair listing odds of 1.97 (20/21) to BACK and 1.99 to LAY (evens), while Blackburn are 4.6 (7/2) to BACK and 4.8 (4/1) to LAY. The draw is 3.55 (5/2 - 13/5) to BACK and 3.65 (13/5 - 11/4) to LAY.

Odds subject to fluctuation - Odds taken at 17.00am 21/12/2007

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Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action (FREE BETS where applicable) or visit top5bet.com for more information

VCBet (up to £100 Free Bet) - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Saturday, 15 December 2007

Sunday's Premiership Picks

Arsenal v Chelsea

Take Arsenal on at 8/5 (2.58) against a Chelsea side that have come into form since the arrival of Avram Grant. The wheels aren't exactly coming off at the Emirates but after being turned over at Middlesboro and drawing against a very poor Newcastle side there is value in opposing the Gunners at the moment - especially against fellow title chasers Chelsea. The Tote are a standout 8/5 among conventional bookmakers so you can stand side by side them and watch the money roll in as the match pans out in a - probable - draw or Chelsea nicking it by the odd goal.

The odds

Arsenal 2.56 Back 2.58 Lay
Draw 3.2 Back 3.25 Lay
Chelsea 3.3 Back 3.35 Lay

Head to Head Record

Arsenal wins 57 (Total 67)
Draws 44 (Total 51)
Chelsea wins 39 (Total 48)

Recommendation
LAY Arsenal 2.58

All odds supplied by leading exchange Betfair

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Liverpool v Manchester United

Manchester United have dominated this fixture in recent years and completed an unlikely double last year after being played off the park - only for John O'Shea to score a late winner to give the Red Devils a one nil victory. Liverpool missed a cutting edge up front. This has been rectified by buying Fernando Torres from At. Madrid in the Summer. The boy can finish and he's worth a punt to be first goalscorer tomorrow. Benitez can be hit and miss with his team selection but when The Reds need a win he is able to put out a team to do the business. Ignore the Reading result. We'll be watching the team that thumped Marseille and Bolton 4-0 and Newcastle by three.

The odds

Liverpool 2.8 Back 2.82 Lay
Draw 3.2 Back 3.25 Lay
Manchester United 3.0 Back 3.05 Lay

Head to Head Record

Liverpool wins 49 (Total 57)
Draws 43 (Total 50
Manchester United wins 56 (Total 66)

Recommendation

LAY Manchester United 3.0
BACK Torres 8.2 First Goal Scorer

All odds supplied by leading exchange Betfair

Saturday, 8 December 2007

Mayweather v Hatton

Can Hatton upset the odds?

As Hatton hype reaches a crescendo even seasoned 'experts' have started calling tonights fight in favour of the lad from Manchester. Clearly, UK based fight fans are willing Hatton to victory - in cringeworthy terrace style - but it is hard to make a rock solid case for him to take the belts.

Mayweather has no weaknesses of note. He is the supreme boxer in the world today, has lightening handspeed, quick feet and great movement.

Ricky Hatton will be taking a solid chin - which he will need - a big heart, heavy hands and pure aggression into the ring. These attributes would see Hatton through most encounters but Mayweather really is a different class. The big danger for Hatton is frustration setting in, not being able to find a way through Mayweathers jab, losing his discipline and leaving himself open to some punishing combinations.

An even bigger danger - early on for Hatton - is his paper thin skin which cuts so easily. With Mayweathers rapier job popping away and finding its target regularly Hatton's cuts man could have a job on his hands to keep his man in the fight.

If Hatton doesn't do the business in the first four rounds - or at least pose some serious questions - he could be in for a long night - being out-reached, out-boxed and out-manouevred by Mayweather.

The interesting thing about tonights big fight - from a betting perspective - is that Mayweather should be shorter than 1.62 (5/8) and Hatton bigger than 2.86 (15/8). This tells us something very simple. Mayweather is overpriced and backable at the price. Hatton backers are getting no value at all at 15/8 and are backing with their hearts not head.

It would be great if he could bring the belts back to the UK but don't bank on it. When Mayweather beat Zab Judah on points last year a low blow from Judah in the 10th sparked a mass brawl. Expect something out of the ordinary tonight - just not a Hatton victory.

Recommendation
Mayweather by Decison/Tech Decision 2.36 (11/8) Betfair

Saturday's Premiership Football Picks

Saturday's Premierhsip - value football betting

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on

...............................................................................................

Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

.................................................................................................

Saturday's Premiership picks

Barclays Premiership

LAY Aston Villa 2.2 v Portsmouth

Chelsea v Sunderland NO BET

BACK Everton DRAW - WIN 4.8 v Fulham

Manchester United v Derby NO BET

LAY Newcastle 1.89 v Birmingham

Reading v BACK Liverpool 1.70

................................................................................................

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Newcastle v Birmingham market and you lay Newcastle, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Newcastle. In this instance as near to 1.89 (10/11) as you can get. If Newcastle don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Newcastle win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

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Leonard Cheshire have been supporting disabled people for almost 60 years and directly support over 21,000 disabled people in the UK.