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New Year's Day Premiership Football Picks

2007-12-31T07:25:00.000-08:00

Premiership - value football betting

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.

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Barclays Premiership

Fulham v LAY Chelsea 1.59

LAY Arsenal 1.37 v West Ham

LAY Manchester United 1.18 v Birmingham City

LAY Middlesbrough 3.5 v Everton

LAY Reading 2.94 v Portsmouth

BACK Aston Villa 2.62 v Tottenham Hotspur

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Middlesbrough v Everton market and you LAY Middlesbrough, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Middlesbrough. In this instance as near to 3.5 (12/5) as you can get. If Middlesbrough don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Middlesbrough win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet (up to £100 Free Bet) - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes
...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

What not to do when gambling

2007-12-28T06:13:00.000-08:00

It's time to lay 2007 and back 2008 and that means New Year Resolutions. Rather than cover sensible resolutions - which go by the way-side quicker than a ten team acca - I thought I'd take a sideways look on the world of betting and suggest ten ways to guarantee losing money in 2008. You'll probably recognise a few of these! If you do, it could be time for a re-think on your betting strategy for the New Year.

1. Bet big and always more than you can afford to lose. This is the most efficient way of all to get rid of all your unwanted cash. Gamble with the rent / mortgage payment, the grocery money, or the kids school fees. Risking more than you can afford to lose will clear all those debts in no time - won't it?

2. Throw good money after bad. You know, keep upping the size of your bets. Progressive betting systems are the most effective way to the poor house. If you think doubling up is a sure fire way to get even after a losing streak, or doubling up to get a bigger win you may run into trouble in knowing when to stop. The complete loss of betting bank is usually the surest sign so you do get help. If you start thinking there is no point in winning a tenner when you could win a hundred or even a thousand quid it's an indication that you have a problem with gambling. What the hell, it's Christmas.

3. Betting on a whim or a hunch. You can feel it in your water can't you? Today is going to be your day. You're going to up your stakes and lump on, let's see now, say Derby to beat Blackburn - they're due a win aren't they? If you feel like you're 'due' a winning day, increase the size of your bets. Let's face it the last time you had that feeling it came true didn't it?

4. Lay lots of ante-post and accumulator bets. They come in from time to time don't they? Bound to happen again. Small stake, big return bets are seductive but are the best way to lighten your pocket and subsequently line the pockets of bookmakers and layers on Exchanges. If you are the type to lay a regular five-timer acca on the footy you are the sort of person that bookmakers love. It's you, after all, that guarantees their handsome profits.

5. Gamble when drunk. Needs no explanation. It just makes sense. Until you wake up the next day. You log into your betting account and see you have wiped out your betting bank. Oh well, you had a good time.

6. Pay for advice from internet 'experts' with claims of guaranteed profits. It will probably be called 'operation easy win' or 'sports betting for winners'. And you're a winner aren't you? There's loads of 'secret' winning punters out there who have left their jobs because they can earn fifty grand a year for only one hours work per day. Loopholes abound you see and you're not bright enough to work them out so hand over your money because that's the best way to make serious cash. Go ahead, they're experts and they've back tested their research so it's bound to work in the future. Didn't go as planned? That's a shame cos' they pinky promised didn't they?

7. Research is for sissies so don't waste your time. You don't need advice from anybody. Trust me. You know what you're doing so get lumpy. Expert opinion with a bit of background research to qualify your confidence in a bet? You don't need it. You're a natural.

8. Shout about the size of your bets down the pub. Ladies love it. You must have money if you can afford to bet big. Trouble is, the type of person who shouts about their betting prowess and sure things that can't fail to win are generally suffering from low self esteem which will be a lot lower when they start losing big too. Do it. It beats buying a big engined soft top.

9. Convince yourself you'll get it right eventually. It's only a losing streak. You'll come good. You know too much. You've won before. You can beat the spread or over-round because you're you. Keep on betting until you're broke and your wife leaves you to go out with your neighbour - and he doesn't even gamble. You don't want to be a wimp after all, do you? Upping your stakes might help.

10. Lucky rabbits foot. You're a lucky guy. Remember that time you won a box of Turkish delight in the village hall raffle after throwing salt over your shoulder? Always have been lucky. Just as long as you wear your lucky pants / socks (Delete as appropriate). Being superstitious is a sure fire way to build the betting bank. You're a Gemini, your favourite player's a Gemini he's bound to be first goal scorer today. Put the mortgage on it. And if that fails you can always chase your bets.

Happy New Year and Good luck for 2008!
top5bet.com

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Bookmakers to have in your locker in 2008 to ensure best price action (FREE BETS where applicable) or visit top5bet.com for more information.

VCBet (up to £100 Free Bet) - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Tonight's Premiership Football

2007-12-27T07:23:00.000-08:00

Manchester City v Blackburn Rovers

Kick-off: 1945

Manchester City have not had much success in this fixture over the past few seasons. We have to go back ten games to find a Manchester City victory. That was a 3-2 away win in 03/04. It is 15 games since they recorded a home victory against Rovers, a 2-0 win in 99/00.

This is, however, a different Manchester City. They are lying fifth in the table with a game in hand and it is because they have made Eastlands a fortress. Played nine, won nine. That's right, no points dropped at home this season. Away from home it is a different story of course with only one win, four draws and four losses.

The trouble with their nine wins is, the longer the run, the nearer its end which is why I'd take a dogged Blackburn side to snatch at least a draw this evening.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Manchester City 2.36 (11/8) (Betfair)

Weekend Premiership Picks

2007-12-21T09:04:00.000-08:00

Arsenal v Tottenham kick off this weekend's action at the Emirates Stadium. Sunday has some great match ups including Man Utd v Everton, Newcastle v Derby and Blackburn v Chelsea at Ewood Park.

Saturday’s Premiership Football

Arsenal v Tottenham – Live on Sky Sports 1, k/o 12:45pm

The Premiership kicks off with the 157th North London derby between Arsenal and Tottenham. Arsenal have recovered their composure since their shock reversal away to Middlesbrough, winning the last 3 games, including an important victory against fellow title rivals Chelsea. Spurs have also enjoyed a positive renewal - of sorts - under new coach Juande Ramos, having won 7 of their last 12 games. Betfair list Arsenal as favourites for this match at 1.53 (8/15) to BACK 1.54 to LAY. Spurs are listed at 8.0 (7/1) to pull off a surprise away win. The draw is a 4.5 (7/2) shot to BACK and 4.6 to LAY.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Arsenal 1.54

Sunday’s Premiership Football

Man Utd v Everton – Live on Setanta Sports 1, k/o 12:00pm

Manchester United are currently on a 3 match winning run, having recently beaten and outplayed fierce rivals Liverpool. Everton, who are also showing some form, are currently enjoying a 7 match unbeaten run, recently beating West Ham 2-0 at Upton Park and snatching an away win at AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Cup. With both teams in great form and playing free flowing football, this match really will be one to watch. Man Utd are currently listed on Betting Exchange Betfair as favourites for this match at 1.42 (2/5) to BACK 1.43 to LAY (4/9), whereas Everton are being offered at 9.8 (9/1) to continue their current rich vein of form.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Manchester United 1.43

Newcastle v Derby – Live on Sky Sports 1, k/o 2:00pm

Derby have only managed one win this season and it was against a shoddy Newcastle in October. The game was awful and won by a Kenny Miller belter. This game should have a very different outcome with Newcastle slowly finding their feet under the guidance of Sam Allardyce. They have taken 7 points from the last 3 games and Derby can expect a torrid afternoon with very little festive cheer. As you would expect against the leagues whipping boys Newcastle have been listed at 1.38 (4/11) to BACK and 1.39 (2/5) to LAY to continue their winning run. Punters are giving Derby little chance of getting the 3 points at 11.0 (10/1).

RECOMMENDATION
NO BET

Blackburn v Chelsea – Live on Sky Sports 1, k/o 4:10pm

Blackburn go into this match with the strong possibility of achieving the miserable feat of three straight Premier League defeats. Another reversal would threaten all the good work by Mark Hughes men earlier in the season. Chelsea suffered their first loss in 15 games against table-toppers Arsenal last weekend, and the Blues will be looking to bounce back straight away to maintain their title push. We can expect a dirty game as both teams are not that big on discipline as gauged by a total of 79 cards being shown to Blackburn and Chelsea players in a combined total of 34 league fixtures this season. Chelsea are favourites for this match, with Betfair listing odds of 1.97 (20/21) to BACK and 1.99 to LAY (evens), while Blackburn are 4.6 (7/2) to BACK and 4.8 (4/1) to LAY. The draw is 3.55 (5/2 - 13/5) to BACK and 3.65 (13/5 - 11/4) to LAY.

Odds subject to fluctuation - Odds taken at 17.00am 21/12/2007

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Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action (FREE BETS where applicable) or visit top5bet.com for more information

VCBet (up to £100 Free Bet) - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Sunday's Premiership Picks

2007-12-15T14:07:00.000-08:00

Arsenal v Chelsea

Take Arsenal on at 8/5 (2.58) against a Chelsea side that have come into form since the arrival of Avram Grant. The wheels aren't exactly coming off at the Emirates but after being turned over at Middlesboro and drawing against a very poor Newcastle side there is value in opposing the Gunners at the moment - especially against fellow title chasers Chelsea. The Tote are a standout 8/5 among conventional bookmakers so you can stand side by side them and watch the money roll in as the match pans out in a - probable - draw or Chelsea nicking it by the odd goal.

The odds

Arsenal 2.56 Back 2.58 Lay
Draw 3.2 Back 3.25 Lay
Chelsea 3.3 Back 3.35 Lay

Head to Head Record

Arsenal wins 57 (Total 67)
Draws 44 (Total 51)
Chelsea wins 39 (Total 48)

Recommendation
LAY Arsenal 2.58

All odds supplied by leading exchange Betfair

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Liverpool v Manchester United

Manchester United have dominated this fixture in recent years and completed an unlikely double last year after being played off the park - only for John O'Shea to score a late winner to give the Red Devils a one nil victory. Liverpool missed a cutting edge up front. This has been rectified by buying Fernando Torres from At. Madrid in the Summer. The boy can finish and he's worth a punt to be first goalscorer tomorrow. Benitez can be hit and miss with his team selection but when The Reds need a win he is able to put out a team to do the business. Ignore the Reading result. We'll be watching the team that thumped Marseille and Bolton 4-0 and Newcastle by three.

The odds

Liverpool 2.8 Back 2.82 Lay
Draw 3.2 Back 3.25 Lay
Manchester United 3.0 Back 3.05 Lay

Head to Head Record

Liverpool wins 49 (Total 57)
Draws 43 (Total 50
Manchester United wins 56 (Total 66)

Recommendation

LAY Manchester United 3.0
BACK Torres 8.2 First Goal Scorer

All odds supplied by leading exchange Betfair

Mayweather v Hatton

2007-12-08T06:41:00.000-08:00

Can Hatton upset the odds?

As Hatton hype reaches a crescendo even seasoned 'experts' have started calling tonights fight in favour of the lad from Manchester. Clearly, UK based fight fans are willing Hatton to victory - in cringeworthy terrace style - but it is hard to make a rock solid case for him to take the belts.

Mayweather has no weaknesses of note. He is the supreme boxer in the world today, has lightening handspeed, quick feet and great movement.

Ricky Hatton will be taking a solid chin - which he will need - a big heart, heavy hands and pure aggression into the ring. These attributes would see Hatton through most encounters but Mayweather really is a different class. The big danger for Hatton is frustration setting in, not being able to find a way through Mayweathers jab, losing his discipline and leaving himself open to some punishing combinations.

An even bigger danger - early on for Hatton - is his paper thin skin which cuts so easily. With Mayweathers rapier job popping away and finding its target regularly Hatton's cuts man could have a job on his hands to keep his man in the fight.

If Hatton doesn't do the business in the first four rounds - or at least pose some serious questions - he could be in for a long night - being out-reached, out-boxed and out-manouevred by Mayweather.

The interesting thing about tonights big fight - from a betting perspective - is that Mayweather should be shorter than 1.62 (5/8) and Hatton bigger than 2.86 (15/8). This tells us something very simple. Mayweather is overpriced and backable at the price. Hatton backers are getting no value at all at 15/8 and are backing with their hearts not head.

It would be great if he could bring the belts back to the UK but don't bank on it. When Mayweather beat Zab Judah on points last year a low blow from Judah in the 10th sparked a mass brawl. Expect something out of the ordinary tonight - just not a Hatton victory.

Recommendation
Mayweather by Decison/Tech Decision 2.36 (11/8) Betfair

Saturday's Premiership Football Picks

2007-12-08T02:42:00.000-08:00

Saturday's Premierhsip - value football betting

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on

...............................................................................................

Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

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Saturday's Premiership picks

Barclays Premiership

LAY Aston Villa 2.2 v Portsmouth

Chelsea v Sunderland NO BET

BACK Everton DRAW - WIN 4.8 v Fulham

Manchester United v Derby NO BET

LAY Newcastle 1.89 v Birmingham

Reading v BACK Liverpool 1.70

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Newcastle v Birmingham market and you lay Newcastle, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Newcastle. In this instance as near to 1.89 (10/11) as you can get. If Newcastle don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Newcastle win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Sunday's Premiership Football Picks

2007-11-11T05:57:00.000-08:00

Sunday's Premierhsip value football betting

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on

...............................................................................................

Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

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Sunday's Premiership picks

Barclays Premiership

15:00 LAY Bolton W 2.12 v Middlesbrough

15:00 BACK Manchester U Draw-Win 4.7 v Blackburn R.

15:00 BACK Tottenham H Draw-Win 5.2 v Wigan Athletic

16:00 LAY Portsmouth 1.91 v Manchester C.

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Portsmouth v Manchester City market and you lay Portsmouth, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Portsmouth. In this instance as near to 1.91 (13/8) as you can get. If Portsmouth don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Portsmouth win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Saturdays Premiership Football Picks

2007-11-03T04:33:00.000-07:00

Saturday's Premierhsip value football betting

Arsenal v Manchester United

All eyes will be on the Emirates at lunch time today as Arsenal take on Manchester United. A potential classic, free flowing football, lots of goals? I wouldn't bet on it. Eight of the last 11 Premiership encounters between the sides have produced two goals or less. This is a game that could see both defences on top, stifling the fantastic array of attacking talent on display.

Although Manchester United have scored four goals in each of their past four games and are on a sequence of eight straight Premiership wins, Arsenal are unbeaten and have taken maximum points at home. A classic case of two attacking, flair sides cancelling each other out.

It's hard to look beyond the draw at 3.2 (11/5) on Betfair but Laying Arsenal at 2.62 (13/8) covers a Manchester United away win which just might happen with their stronger attack.

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Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.

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Premiership Stat Watch

Matches Played - 107
Home Wins - 53%
Away Wins - 25%
Draws - 25%
0-0 Draws - 7%
Avg. Home Goals - 1.6
Avg. Away Goals - 1.1
Avg. Goal Per Game - 2.7

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Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment

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Saturday's Premiership picks

Barclays Premiership

LAY Arsenal 2.62 v Manchester United

BACK Aston Villa HT-FT 2.22 v Derby

Blacburn v BACK Liverpool 2.54

BACK Everton 1.80 v Birmingham

LAY Fulham 2.48 v Reading

LAY Middlesboro 3.2 v Spurs

BACK Newcastle 2.1 v Portsmouth

Wigan v BACK Chelsea HT-FT 2.22

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Arsenal v Manchester United market and you lay Arsenal, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Arsenal. In this instance as near to 2.62 (13/8) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Saturdays Premiership Football Picks

2007-09-29T03:33:00.000-07:00

Saturday's value football betting

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment

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Saturday's Premiership picks

Barclays Premiership

Birmingham v Manchester United NO BET

LAY Chelsea 1.37 v Fulham

Derby v LAY Bolton 2.58

BACK Manchester City 2.32 v Newcastle

BACK Portsmouth 1.82 v Reading

Sunderland v LAY Blackburn 2.58

West Ham v LAY Arsenal 1.83

Wigan v Liverpool NO BET

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the West Ham v Arsenal market and you lay Arsenal, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Arsenal. In this instance as near to 1.83 (4/5) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Bet 365 - Square - Tote - Paddy Power - Skybet - Betfred - William Hill - Ladbrokes

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Sunday's Premiership picks

2007-09-23T03:23:00.000-07:00

With Inverness upsetting the apple cart with a late 2-1 win over Hearts and Liverpool's failure against Birmingham the draw(s) between Fulham and Manchester City, Middlesboro and Sunderland and Reading's win against Wigan provided some respite for the betting bank.

Liverpool are an interesting case. Their inconsistency has been their downfall, more away from home in recent years but what does the 0-0 result against Birmingham tell us? It suggests that from a betting perspective knowledge of Benitez's starting line up is the most important factor when backing the Reds. Strongest starting line up beats Birmingham every time but the manager's tinkering for this tournament and that will ultimately be the downfall of both Liverpool's Premiership ambitions and lazy punter's backing on reputation alone.

Everyone is talking about the Manchester United v Chelsea game today but after Newcastle's abject display against Derby last Monday they are worth taking on against a West Ham side that haven't been beaten away from home in 07/08. West Ham are unpredictable at best but are capable of getting a draw at St James's Park this afternoon. Lay Newcastle to get the draw and the Hammers on side.

The most interesting aspect of the Bolton v Spurs game is who will be last man standing, little Sammy Lee or Martin Jol? After thumping a pub side in the UEFA cup midweek the Spurs players will be coming into the match fresh and with the confidence of putting six goals away - regardless of the opposition. To put that into context Bolton were also in action against Rabotnicki - giants of Macedonian football - and drew 1-1. Spurs look the most likely to land the 6/4 odds and keep Martin Jol in work for another week at least.

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on. Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

................................................................................................

Sunday's Premiership picks

Barclays Premiership

LAY Aston Villa 2.24 V Everton

BACK Blackburn 2.14 v Portsmouth

Bolton v BACK Spurs 2.5

BACK Manchester United 2.04 v Chelsea

LAY Newcastle 2.22 v West Ham

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Newcastle v West Ham market and you lay Newcastle, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Newcastle. In this instance as near to 2.22 (6/5) as you can get. If Newcastle don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Newcastle win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Best Price about Bolton 9/5 at home v Spurs

Bet 365 - Joint best price about Chelsea away v Manchester United

Betfred - Best Price about Spurs 6/4 away v Bolton

Betfred - Best Price about Manchester United 11/10 home v Chelsea

William Hill - Joint best Price about Blackburn 10/11 at home v Portsmouth

Ladbrokes - Joint best Price about Portsmouth 10/3 away v Blackburn

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Saturday's Premiership Football Picks

2007-09-22T04:05:00.000-07:00

Saturday's value football betting

Beyond the Premiership there looks to be a nice little earner to be had north of the border. Hearts take on Inverness Caledonian Thistle and are a tasty Even money (2.0) on the Exchanges. They range from 8/11 with Betfred which feels about right and 10/11 with Blue Square which, even at a shade of odds on, represents value about a win for the Jambo's. The betting exchanges BACK price of Evens (2.0) for Hearts is one to get stuck into. Inverness have lost every game they have played this season and it would take a monster effort to take the spoils today. Hearts go into the game full of confidence after putting four past Rangers last weekend.

Saturday's Premiership looks a low key affair with all eyes on Sunday's Manchester United v Chelsea clash. Easy games, on paper at least, for Arsenal and Liverpool and two games which look more like Championship fixtures.

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Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment

................................................................................................

Saturday's Premiership picks

Odds in brackets denote current price on Betfair.

Barclays Premiership

Arsenal v Derby - No Bet

LAY Fulham 2.64 v Manchester City

Liverpool v Birmingham - BACK Liverpool HT-FT 1.73

LAY Middlesboro 2.12 v Sunderland

BACK Reading 2.1 v Wigan

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Middlesboro v Sunderland market and you lay Middlesboro, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Middlesboro. In this instance as near to 2.12 (11/10) as you can get. If Middlesboro don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Middlesboro win, then you pay out.For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

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Premiership Stat Watch

Matches Played - 57

Home Wins - 50%

Away Wins - 25%

Draws - 25%

0-0 Draws - 7%

Avg. Home Goals - 1.4

Avg. Away Goals - 0.9

Avg. Goal Per Game - 2.3
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Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Best Price about Bolton 9/5 at home v Spurs

Bet 365 - Joint best price about Middlesboro 11/10 at home v Sunderland

Blue Square - Joint best price about Middlesboro 11/10 at home v Sunderland

Tote - Joint best price about Middlesboro 11/10 at home v Sunderland

Paddy Power - Joint best Price about Fulham at home 6/4 v Manchester City

Skybet - Joint best Price abuot Fulham 6/4 at home v Manchester City

Betfred - Best Price about Spurs 6/4 away v Bolton

Coral - Best Price about Liverpool 1/4 at home v Birmingham

William Hill - Joint best Price about Blackburn 10/11 at home v Portsmouth

Ladbrokes - Joint best Price about Portsmouth 10/3 away v Blackburn

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Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Weekend Premiership Picks

2007-09-14T02:16:00.000-07:00

Saturday's value football betting

The Euro Qualifiers offered little in the way of return over the past week. Sweden looked good things for a back bet against Denmark but could only manage a 0-0 draw. England suddenly look like a well balanced team and Scotland were magic in Paris, defended heroically and scored a great goal to take the points at 9/1 (10.0) or more.

I have never liked international football as a betting medium. Euro 2004 and the African Nations are two tournaments which hold particularly bad memories from a punting perspective.

Looking at profit and loss over a six year period consistent gains have been made at domestic and European club level but losses (overall) have been incurred across International qualifiers and tournaments. This is closely correlated with lack of a form guide in these types of matches and illustrates why it is important to keep records of your betting so you can eliminate value destroying activity.

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Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'. Post your price(s) and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.

Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

...............................................................................................

Saturday's Premiership picks...

Odds in brackets denote current price on Betfair.

Barclays Premiership

Birmingham v LAY Bolton 3.0 (3.1)

LAY Chelsea 1.40 (1.44) v Blackburn

Everton v LAY Manchester United 1.83 (1.89)

Portsmouth v BACK Liverpool 1.86 (1.81)

Sunderland v LAY Reading 3.2 (3.3)

Tottenham v LAY Arsenal 2.62 (2.64)

West Ham v LAY Middlesboro 4.0 (4.3)

LAY Wigan 2.2 (2.24) v Fulham

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels on the BACK or LAY side be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Chelsea v Blackburn market and you lay Chelsea, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Chelsea. In this instance as near to 1.40 (2/5) as you can get. If Chelsea don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Chelsea win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

..............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

VCBet - Best price about the Middlesboro win at 3/1 (4.0) - Away v West Ham

Bet 365 - Best price about an Everton win at 7/2 (4.5) - Home v Man United

Blue Square - No best prices in the Premiership

Tote - Best price about a Liverpool win at 4/5 (1.80) - Away v Portsmouth

Paddy Power - Best price about a Wigan win 6/5 (1.20) - Home v Fulham

Skybet - Best price about the West Ham win Evens (2.0) - Home v Middlesboro

Betfred - Best price about the Newcastle win 10/11 (1.90) - Away v Derby

Coral - No best prices in the Premiership

William Hill - Joint best price about the Newcastle win 10/11 (1.90) - Away v Derby

Ladbrokes - Best price about Man United win at 5/6 (1.83) - Away v Everton

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Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Euro 2004 Qualifiers

2007-09-08T03:46:00.000-07:00

Sweden look a great price to beat their near neighbours Denmark this evening. Sure, it is a local derby and you may want the draw on your side if you are risk averse but Sweden are sitting pretty at the top of Group F and will look to extend their lead and their record so far of six wins and one loss. The one loss they have suffered was at the hands of a resurgent Northern Ireland but can be considered a blip. They have played Denmark away from home and beat them 3-0. Another notable result in the campaign was the 2-0 win against perennial under-achievers Spain.

Bosnia look to have enough against Hungary to go for a BACK bet but once again for those that like to hedge the draw, a LAY of Hungary at 2.24 looks reasonable when you consider the minnows from Malta scored a 2-1 victory against the Magyars earlier in the campaign. They have also been beaten 4-1 at home against Norway and 1-0 against Turkey. Hungary have beaten Bosnia away from home but that was earlier in the campaign (Sept 06) and Bosnia have since beaten Turkey 3-2 and find themselves looking to consolidate second position behind leaders Greece.

What can we say about England? They always flatter to deceive, have an inept coach in Steve Mclaren, are looking to Emile Heskey to relive the good old days with injury prone Michael Owen and have a goal keeper that makes Jens Lehmann look effective. Yes, they should win. They are not however backable at 4/11 (1.36) so take them to make a slow start and take the game Draw-England on the half time-full time markets at 4.6.

And finally, domestically Luton look a decent bet to beat Bristol Rovers in the lunch time kick off today at 1.86.

Euro 2008 Qualifiers

Back Sweden 2.14 v Denmark

Hungary v BACK Bosnia HG 3.45

Back England v Israel Draw HT - England FT

League One

Back Luton 1.86 v Bristol Rovers 12pm

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Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Blue Square Premier League

2007-09-04T03:57:00.000-07:00

Betting on the Blue Square Premier tonight.

Match In Focus - Cambridge v Grays Athletic (KO 19.45)

Cambridge Utd 11/10 (B 2.14, L 2.16)
Grays Athletic 2/1 (B 3.8, L 3.9)
Draw 9/4 (B 3.6, L 3.7)

Note: Betfair odds in Brackets. Blue Square odds in Red

Key: B = Back, L = Lay

Last six games Cambridge:

Weymouth 2-2 Cambridge
Cambridge 1-1 Ebbsfleet
Woking 0-0 Cambridge
Cambridge 5-1 Farsley
Cambridge 2-1 Oxford
York 1-2 Cambridge

Last six games Grays Athletic

Droylsden 1-2 Grays
Grays 0-1 Histon
Altrincham 0-1 Grays
Grays 5-1 Kidderminster
Grays 1-1 Woking
Torquay 0-0 Grays

Blue Square Premier League Table
Blue Square Premier Previews

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Cambridge at range of 2.10 - 2.14 - Betfair

Or Back the Draw at 3.6 - Betfair

Back the draw at 9/4 (3.25) for the Blue Square Free Bet*

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Other Blue Square Premier Fixtures...

Droylsden v Stevenage, 19:45
Ebbsfleet United v Histon, 19:45
Farsley Celtic v Kidderminster, 19:45
Forest Green v Aldershot, 19:45
Northwich v Burton Albion, 19:45
Oxford Utd v Exeter, 19:45
Rushden & D'monds v Crawley Town, 19:45
Torquay v Salisbury, 19:45
Woking v Weymouth, 19:45
York v Altrincham, 19:45

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* Blue Square £25 + £25 Offer and how it works:

Open an account and place a win single bet of at least £25 (or currency equivalent). Blue Square will then credit your account with a £25 betting token. Token value is not included in any bet returns - Token expires after 1 month - Offer limited to one per person. Place a further 10 qualifying bets of at least £25 or more, and you will qualify for a second free bet token of £25 as a 'bet bonus'. Only bets of £25 or more will qualify towards your next free bet (bets of a lower value do not effect your entitlement to the offer).

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Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

DEAL OF THE WEEK

VCBet - Free £100 bet (Free bet up to a maximum of £50 - place five more real money bets of £10 or more and VC Bet will give you another £50 free bet

Free bets from Other leading bookmakers. Check them out here.

Bet 365 - 15% match up bonus (See terms and conditions)

Tote - Free £25 bet

Paddy Power - Free £20 bet

Skybet - Match your first bet up to £20 maximum

Betfred - Match your first bet up to £40 maximum

Coral - Free £10 bet

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Today's value football betting

2007-09-02T02:22:00.000-07:00

Saturday's Premiership picks were a resounding success with a 60% return. Only Middlesboro' spoiled a clean sweep of winners on the betting exchanges.

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can BACK and/or LAY any selection and choose the price/odds you want to take. With all of the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. Simply taking the first price you see on Betfair will most likely mean poor value as a 'backer' or 'layer'.

Post your price and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whatever side of the bet you are on.

Odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

Today's football picks...

Barclays Premiership

LAY Arsenal 1.57 v Portsmouth

LAY Blackburn 2.24 v Man City

Aston Villa v BACK Chelsea at 1.86

Note: The Tote are the best priced bookmaker about a Chelsea win at 8/11 (1.72). The 1.86 available on the betting exchanges is good value even when taking commission of 5% into account.

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Clydesdale Bank Premier

St Mirren v Celtic - LAY Celtic Half Time/Full Time 2.0 (Evens)

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Primera Liga

Almeria v BACK Valencia 2.42

BACK Villarreal 3.05 v Real Madrid

(Note: Preferably LAY R.Madrid but only if you can lay at a range of 2.4 - 2.5. They are currently available to lay at 2.62)

...............................................................................................

Bundesliga 1

BET OF THE DAY!

Hamburg v BACK Bayern Munich 1.98 - 2.0

Note: The kick off for this match is 4pm. Post a BACK price at a range of 1.98 - 2.0 and wait for the market to get active and liquid. 1.94 is you minimum price to back B. Munich at.

...............................................................................................

Serie A

Cagliari v LAY Juventus 1.76

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Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'LAY' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Arsenal v Portsmouth market and you lay Arsenal, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Arsenal. In this instance as near to 1.57 (4/7) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

...............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

DEAL OF THE WEEK

VCBet - Free £100 bet (Free bet up to a maximum of £50 - place five more real money bets of £10 or more and VC Bet will give you another £50 free bet

Free bets from Other leading bookmakers. Check them out here.

Bet 365 - 15% match up bonus (See terms and conditions)

Blue Square - Free £25 Bet + £25 Bet Bonus on 10th Bet!

Tote - Free £25 bet

Paddy Power - Free £20 bet

Skybet - Match your first bet up to £20 maximum

Betfred - Match your first bet up to £40 maximum

Coral - Free £10 bet

William Hill

Ladbrokes

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Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

Premiership Value Betting

2007-09-01T01:41:00.000-07:00

Backers of hot favourites need bookmakers on side

Liverpool and Manchester United are both trading at worse prices than the best bookmaker (Paddy Power 1/5 Liverpool, Coral 1/4 Man Utd) on the betting exchanges. This invariably happens on the exchanges when you get a red hot favourite playing against canon fodder on home turf. When it does happen you should do one of two things. Back with the best priced bookmaker or see it as a great value LAYING opportunity with little threat to your betting bank.

A couple of weeks ago we looked at what happened in the Premier League across the 06/07 season. You may remember, across 380 games there were 48% homes wins, 26% away wins and 26% draws. Nine per cent of games ended 0-0. The home team scored on average 1.5 goals, the away team scored 1 and therefore we had 2.5 goals scored on average per game.

And the story so far this season? Well, there have been 37 matches played. Of which 46% were home wins, 27% drawn and 27% away wins, 5% were 0-0 stalemates. Home teams have scored on average 1.4 goals, away teams have scored 1.1 making an average goals per game of 2.4. Clearly four games is not enough to see a robust trend across 0-0 scorelines but it is interesting to note the ratio of home, away and drawn games as well as goals scored is broadly in keeping with the Premiership's recent history.

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion) Where the selection is not a LAY we have clearly marked it as a BACK bet and where appropriate added notes.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

The prices you should be aiming for are highlighted (linked) with the team in question. The odds in brackets are the prices currently available on the Betfair markets. As you will see, by just taking the listed price you will be getting poor value as a 'layer'. Post your price and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whether you are a backer or layer of teams.

Today's Premiership

Bolton 2.5 (2.54) v Everton

Fulham 3.2 (3.6) v Tottenham

Liverpool v Derby - LAY Derby +1.5 on the Asian Handicap 2.60

Man United v Sunderland - LAY Man Utd/Man Utd on the Half time/Full time market 1.60

Middlesboro 2.0 (2.02) v Birmingham

Newcastle v Wigan - BACK Newcastle at 1.80

Reading 2.25 (2.28)v West Ham

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Bolton v Everton market and you lay Bolton, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Bolton. In this instance as near to 2.5 (6/4) as you can get. If Bolton don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Bolton win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

...............................................................................................

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets. Register with Betfair here or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds

- Correct Score Football Odds

- Half time - Full time Football Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds

- First Goal Scorer Odds

...............................................................................................

Other Bookmakers to have in your locker to ensure best price action

Free bets apply with some bookmakers. Check them out here.

Bet 365 - Low overround andup to 100% bonus on Euro accumulators

Blue Square - 3/1 Man Utd to beat Sunderland by 2 goals

Tote - Free £50 bet

Ladbrokes - Top 5 banker, 9/4 Rangers, Liverpool, Man U, Celtic and East Fife to win today

VCBet - 5% added to winning trebles and four-folds + more bonuses

Paddy Power - Refunding FGS/LGS/ Correct Score and Scorecast bets if Teves scores last goal

Skybet - Bet Responsibly

Betfred - The bonus king

Coral - Best price for backers of Manchester United 1/4 v Sunderland today

William Hill - now betting to 106% online

top5bet is not responsible for the content of external sites

Bookmaker Preview - VC Bet

2007-08-26T12:26:00.000-07:00

Although the focus here is generally on Betting Exchanges - and in particular Betfair due to supreme market liquidity, if not the best commission rates - it is sensible to register with a handful of the best bookmakers to ensure you can access all your favourite markets as well as get the best price, minus commission.

Open a VC Bet account and receive their latest industry-leading sign-up offer. (*for details see the bottom of the page)

Betfair, in general, offers around 20% better odds than bookmakers. This however is not always the case. When heavily fancied teams, like Chelsea, Barcelona and Celtic et al play at home the market on Betfair can be tight and a bookmaker can provide better value - especially with commission taken into account.

This week I am going to take a look at VC Bet from Victor Chandler- 'The Gentleman's Bookmaker'. The odds makers at VC Bet very often take a view and can have stand out prices which on some occasions will compete with the Betting Exchanges. Their Asian Handicap markets offer good value and they are not frightened off by a big wager. VC Bet are well worth having in your portfolio.

VC Bet features:

- Constantly updated Homepage, featuring the main sporting and betting opportunities.
- Round the clock customer support team.
- A full range of language and currency options.
- Mobile phone betting.
- Wide range of industry-leading sign-up offers.

Whether your passion is Horse Racing, Football, Golf, Rugby, Victor Chandler's VC Bet Sportsbook has it all. VC Bet has built a reputation as one of the Internet's most established and trusted sportsbooks, with a full range of betting opportunities and daily offers.

The full offer from VC Bet, the sportsbook from Victor Chandler, looks like this:

Sports Markets Available

- Baseball - Basketball - Cricket - Dogs - Golf - Football - Football Specials - Horseracing - NFL - Rugby - Tennis - US Horse Racing - Politics - Athletics - Darts - Gaelic Games -

Additional Features

- Racing Results US Results and Info Football Results Livescores Radio In-running Diary

I only ever advocate betting on things involving living things so I am not endorsing other parts of Victor Chandler's offering but for completeness they also offer

- Casino - Poker - Games - Mobile -

Open an account here and receive their latest industry-leading sign-up offer.

This is what they say about themselves...

The Victor Chandler Business and its associated companies, established in 1946 has grown to become one of the most dynamic bookmaking and gaming groups worldwide. With Headquarters in Gibraltar and offices around the world, the Group offers international online and telephone sports betting opportunities and web-based gaming in 8 languages. Customers range from those who enjoy a relatively small gamble to some of the biggest players in the world. The range of betting opportunities offered to them and the volume of bets taken daily is enormous and these are backed by the world's most sophisticated and comprehensive online operating system with a dedicated multilingual team of staff.

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The action...

VC Bet Football - Bank Holiday Monday

Stevenage v Oxford United

Two of the strongest sides in the league face each other on Monday night. Stevenage & Oxford both have nine points having won three out of four so far. The match is live on Setanta at 7.45pm. Betting in-running is available from both Betfair and VC Bet.

- 90 Minutes 1st Goal Scorer Correct Score All Markets -

This is predominantly a football (soccer) betting site but with the UK Bank holiday Monday there are lots of opportunities to have a fun bet on the horses. VC Bet are offering action on the following eight meetings - early prices available from 10am.

- Kempton Warwick Huntingdon Newcastle Cartmel Downpatrick Ripon Chepstow -

Open a VC Bet account and receive their latest industry-leading sign-up offer. (*for details see the bottom of the below)

..........................................................................................

* ACCOUNT OPENING OFFER
Free £50 cash back when you open a new account. In order to claim this you need to place your first bet with at least one selection with odds of 'evens' within 30 days of opening your VC Bet online account.

Win or lose, VC Bet will credit you back the stake of that first bet up to a maximum of fifty pounds.

..........................................................................................

Opening an account with VC Bet couldn't be easier

1) Click here to go the VC Bet website sign up page.
2) Click on "Open Account" on the upper right hand side of the screen.
3) Fill in the form - this takes 2/3 minutes maximum.
4) Have your card handy so that you can deposit funds to start betting
5) Specify which sports betting alerts you would like.

..........................................................................................

Betting Details with VC Bet

- Minimum Bet Required - £ 1
- Maximum Bet - No Maximum Bet
- Max Winnings - £ 100,000 per bet
- Accepted Modes of placing a bet - Internet, Telephone
- Choice of Odds Format - European, American, British odds

..........................................................................................

Account Administration

Payment Methods

- Visa, Mastercard, Switch, Delta, Solo, Electron, Personal Cheque, Bank Transfer -

- Minimum Deposit

£5

- Minimum Bet

£1

- Currencies

AUD, CHF, DKK, EUR, GBP, HKD, JPY, KPW, NOK, NZD, SEK, SGD, THB, TWD, USD

-Languages

Chinese, Danish, English, Greek, Hebrew, Korean, Norwegian, Russian, Spanish, Swedish, Turkish

Oxford University Gambling Survey

2007-08-26T05:24:00.000-07:00

Oxford University are inviting people to complete a survey on online gambling. Click here to take part.

From their site...

Online gambling has increased substantially in the last few years. Little is known about the effects of the Internet on people's gambling behaviour and its impact on people who use these sites a little and those who use these sites a lot. Our survey is intended to fill this gap.

Better understanding of these issues, and the health experiences of people who use online gambling sites, will allow them to find ways to help the small number of people who experience problems controlling their gambling online.

As a thank you for taking part Oxford University are giving away six 80 GB video playing i-Pods in a prize draw. Just complete the survey to enter. To find out more about clinical and psychological characteristics of Internet gamblers: web-based survey click here.

The survey takes less than 20 minutes to complete. Click here to take part.

Premiership Football

2007-08-25T03:21:00.000-07:00

Home sides are there for the taking today. Arsenal and Chelsea are opposable on the betting exchanges at 1.65 and 1.3 respectively. Even if they do win they are not going to do much damage to your betting bank so are worth taking on. Aston Villa are to be avoided at a shade of odds on against Fulham. Derby - well, are Derby and lack cutting edge even against fellow Premiership minnows Birmingham and Everton face a tough encounter with Blackburn.

West Ham and Liverpool should take the spoils in their respective games against Wigan and Sunderland but I would suggest opposing them on the Half-Time Full-Time football markets.

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

The prices you should be aiming for are highlighted (linked) with the team in question. The odds in brackets are the prices currently available on the Betfair markets. As you will see, by just taking the listed price you will be getting poor value as a 'layer'. Post your price and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whether you are a backer or layer of teams.

Today's Premiership

Arsenal 1.65 (1.65) v Manchester City
Aston Villa 1.76 (1.76) v Fulham
Bolton 2.4 (2.44) v Reading
Chelsea 1.3 (1.33) v Portsmouth in additiona LAY Chelsea HT-FT 1.99
Derby 2.5 (2.58) v Birmingham
Everton 2.16 (2.32) v Blackburn
Sunderland v Liverpool LAY Liverpool HT-FT 2.84
West Ham v Wigan LAY West Ham HT-FT 3.65

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Arsenal v Manchester City market and you lay Arsenal, you offer odds to other punters who wish toback Arsenal. In this instance as near to 1.66 (4/6) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair here or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds click here

- Correct Score Football Odds click here

- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here

- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here

- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

Football Friendlies - A health warning

2007-08-22T09:45:00.000-07:00

International friendlies should come with a £££ health warning and avoided if you are seriously trying to grow your betting bank.

Teams that should win 'on paper' flatter to deceive, star players do not have the motivation, the manager experiments, players want to avoid injury, star players are left out or come on for only 20 minutes and so on.

It has become too difficult to understand the motivation of players, teams and managers when it comes to friendly matches to know whether the odds / prices available represent good value. Football, indeed any sport, needs to be competitive for gambling to work.

My suggestion for small stakes interest this evening is to back the following teams to win 2-0. They are all favourites and expected to win but I am not expecting over 2.5 goals.

Euro Qualifier

Northern Ireland v Liechtenstein 2 - 0 Correct Score 6.0 (5/1)

International Friendlies

Scotland v South Africa 2 - 0 Correct Score 9.2 (8.2/1)

Norway v Argentina 2 - 0 Correct Score 12.0 (11/1)

Oh, and if you cannot resist getting involved in the England v Germany game - although I advise you do - go for a small stakes bet on Draw-Draw half-time full-time bet at 5.0 (4/1).

Remember, the majority of tonight's fixtures are 'friendlies' so keep to small stakes, crack open a tinny and enjoy.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair here for 20% better odds when BACKING or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds click here

- Correct Score Football Odds click here

- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here

- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

Premier League and Value Betting

2007-08-19T03:09:00.000-07:00

The Betting Exchanges are not offering much value on the LAY side today. Wherever your money goes, be it on Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool or Manchester United be sure to post the price you want for a value bet. If it is taken, great. If not then that is great as well. If you just take the prices as they are, even if you win the bet, you will lose in the long run with a strategy (or non strategy) like that.

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability).The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'Layed' unless otherwise stated. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

The prices you should be aiming for are highlighted (linked) with the team in question. The odds in brackets are the prices currently available on the Betfair markets. As you will see, by just taking the listed price you will be getting poor value as a 'layer'. Post your price and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whether you are a backer or layer of football teams.

Today's Premiership

Blackburn v Arsenal 2.25 (2.4)
Liverpool v Chelsea 3.1 (3.3)
Man City v Man United 1.85 (2.0)

Championship

Sheffield Wednesday 2.64 (2.86) v Wolves

League Two

Rotherham 2.7 (3.05) v Peterbrough

Scottish Premier

Aberdeen v Celtic - Lay Celtic-Celtic on the HT-FT market at 3.25

Scottish Division 1

Livingston 2.88 (3.25) v Dunfermline

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with - do not accept the price posted if it doesn't offer value. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Liverpool v Chelsea market and you lay Chelsea, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Chelsea. In this instance as near to 3.1 (21/10) as you can get. If Chelsea don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Chelsea win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair here for 20% better odds when BACKING or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds click here

- Correct Score Football Odds click here

- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here

- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

Premier League and Correct Score Betting

2007-08-18T02:24:00.000-07:00

When betting on the Premier league it is worth considering what happens across all matches when betting on individual games. Across 380 games last season there were 48% homes wins, 26% away wins and 26% draws. Nine per cent of games ended 0-0. The home team scored on average 1.5 goals, the away team scored 1 and therefore we had 2.5 goals scored on average per game.

The 2.5 average is interesting in so much as it is common across most professional leagues in the UK. League One, League Two, SPL all had a 2.5 average in 06/07. The Championship and Scottish Division One had an average of 2.6 goals per game. Scottish Division Two had a 3 goal average and and Scottish Division Three had 2.8 goal per game on average.

Clearly knowing these statistics is only half the battle. You then have to take individual team records into consideration as well as the opposition to form your view. One thing a knowledge of the statistics will help with is in knowing whether the odds you are considering represent value for you.

For example, Bet365 are offering 8/1 (9.0) on a 0-0 correct score in the Portsmouth v Bolton match. The oddsmakers are suggesting with these odds that there is a 11% chance of a 0-0 draw. On Betfair the same outcome is trading at 11.5 for backers which suggests an 8.7% chance of a 0-0 draw. We know the average across the Premiership for 0-0 draws is 9% or 34 games out of 380. Taking the 365 odds all season will not represent value and you will ultimately lose money as you will never get anything close to odds (and therefore the return) that bear a true reflection on the likelihood of the outcome.

Onto today's Premiership programme...

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability).

The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment. The prices you should be aiming for are highlighted (linked) with the team in question. The odds in brackets are the prices currently available on the Betfair markets. As you will see, by just taking the listed price you will be getting poor value as a 'layer'. Post your price and if there are no takers that's fine. Remember, value is key, whether you are a backer or layer of teams.

Today's Premiership

Birmingham City 2.4 (2.52) v West Ham
Fulham v Middlesboro 3.4 (4.1)
Newcastle v Aston Villa 3.33 (4.5) (5.15 ko)
Portsmouth v Bolton 3.5 (4.2) (12.45 ko)
Reading 2.5 (2.66) v Everton
Tottenham 1.5 (1.53) v Derby
Wigan 2.4 (2.52) v Sunderland

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting againstit winning. For example, if you're betting in the Portsmouth v Bolton market and you lay Bolton, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Bolton. In this instance as near to 3.5 (7/2) as you can get. If Bolton don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Bolton win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair here or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds click here

- Correct Score Football Odds click here

- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here

- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here

- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

Premiership Football

2007-08-15T05:31:00.000-07:00

Okay, Arsenal and Chelsea prevailed and Manchester United ran into a brick wall in the shape of Steve Coppell's Reading team. At the prices we Layed Arsenal and Chelsea at it was certainly worth the ride and hardly threatened the betting bank. The treble with best priced Coral was lost with Manchester United's disappointing 0-0 opener. It is interesting to note for punters that like to back the big three (or four if you include Liverpool) in trebles or accumulators, that only five times - when they were not playing each other - did all of them win last season 06/07.

Onto tonights football...

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)
If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

Tuesday's Premiership

Birmingham 2.4 v Sunderland
Fulham 2.25 v Bolton
Man City v Derby 5.5
Portsmouth v Manchester United 1.66
Reading v Chelsea 1.58
Wigan v Middlesboro - NO BET

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting againstit winning. For example, if you're betting in the Birmingham v Sunderland market and you layBirmingham, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Birmingham. In this instance as near to 2.4 (7/5) as you can get. If Birmingham don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Birmingham win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets.

Register with Betfair here or click on a market below.

- Football Match Odds click here
- Correct Score Football Odds click here
- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here
- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here
- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

Sunday's Premiership Football

2007-08-12T01:46:00.000-07:00

Betting on today's Premier League Matches is a tricky affair and where you place your money really depends on if you like to follow the crowd or be a contrarian punter by opposing strongly fancied favourites.

Lets look at some of the facts.

1) Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are all playing at home. In season 06/07 Manchester United won 15 homes games, drew 2 and lost 2. Chelsea won 12, drew 7 and lost 0. The Gunner's won 12, drew 6 and lost 1.

2) Fulham were woeful away from home last year and took all 3 points on only one occasion. They did however draw 8 matches, and lost an abysmal 10. Reading went w5, d5, l9. (Note: Birmingham were in the Championship so not relevant. For the record they went w 11, d 3, l9)

If you are blinded by the big names and don't believe Reading, Fulham and Birmingham have a chance then do your money by all means. The treble would pay roughly even (1/1) money.

In reality, Chelsea and Arsenal both look opposable. And I will be looking to take on Chelsea at home this season with a progressive staking strategy. (More on this another time)

If you do fancy the short price favourites you could do worse than look at the correct score markets for a bit of value to low stakes. For example, Manchester United to win 2-0 (6.2) 3-0 (8.2) wouldn't appear to be that far from reality with a decent return from backing both scorelines. Alternatively, if you think Man U will be slow starters on the opening day but think they will win the match take a look at the 'Draw-Man U' half-time/full-time market currently trading at 4.8.

LAY recommendations below, but first a quick reminder of how it all works...

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

Sunday's Premiership

Arsenal 1.33 v Fulham
Chelsea 1.22 v Birmingham
Man Utd v Reading - No Bet

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting againstit winning. For example, if you're betting in the Arsenal v Fulham market and you lay Arsenal, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Arsenal. In this instance as near to 1.33 (1/3) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets:

- Football Match Odds click here
- Correct Score Football Odds click here
- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here
- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here
- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

The Premiership strikes back

2007-08-10T15:47:00.000-07:00

Premiership football returns this weekend with Aston Villa v Liverpool, Manchester Utd v Reading and Chelsea v Birmingham the highlights. Well, if you follow the top three anyway. Sunderland and Tottenham kick off the TV action at 12.45 this Saturday.

To kick off your season register with Betfair

Sunderland v Tottenham - 12.45 Saturday

In their Championship winning season Sunderland came from nowhere to win the title. They secured the title by capturing 54 points in the second halfof the season. Roy Keanes men went Games won: 27 Games drawn: 7 Games lost:12. Will the Irish talisman be able to work his magic in the topflight?That question will be easier to answer after six games or so. With Martin Jol strengthening his squad over the summer Sunderland will have their workcut out. Take Spurs to take the three points.

Chelsea v Birmingham - 1.30 Sun

The battle of the runners-up. In 06/07 Chelsea Games won: 24 Games drawn: 11 Games lost: 3. Birmingham Games won: 26 Games drawn: 8 Games lost: 12. Needless to say runners-up in the Premiership is more significant than runners-up in the Championship. Rather than take Chelsea to get off to a three point start at skinny oddstry a 2-0 correct score bet for the Stamford Bridge side.

Man Utd v Reading - 4pm Sunday

Manchester United are the opening-game specialists, having taken 32 points from 15 opening Premiership games. Last August the champions recorded their biggest league tally of the campaign with five against Fulham. Man United'schampionship winning record was Games won: 28 Games drawn: 5 Games lost: 5.

Reading's creditable first season in the top flight went Games won:16 Games drawn: 7 Games lost: 15

Aston Villa v Liverpool - 3pm Saturday

After a busy period in the summer transfer market, Red boss Rafa Benitez believes Liverpool are serious contenders for a first title since 1990 and will be gunning for three points at Villa Park where they haven't lost in nine years. Liverpool captured third place in the Premiership with a Games won: 20 Games drawn: 8 Games lost: 10 season.

The Villains, grabbed a disappointing 11th spot by drawing far too many games - 45% of all their game sended in stalemate which made for a frustrating season for their fans.Turning a fair proportion of those draws into wins will be key to their season. Their 06/07 season looked like this. Games won:11 Games drawn:17 Games lost:10

Bolton v Newcastle - 3pm Saturday

With only one draw in 16 league fixtures, a victory for either side may be favourite, but for which side? Bolton have won their last five home games against Newcastle, but that record was achieved under Big Sam Allardyce -the new boss at St James Park! Bolton Games won:16 Games draw: 8 Games lost:14.Newcastle Games won:11 Games draw:10 Games lost:17

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. 'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

Saturdays Premiership

Aston Villa v Liverpool 2.10
Bolton 2.5 v Newcastle
Derby 2.8 v Portsmouth
Everton v Wigan - No Bet
Middlesboro 2.5 v Blackburn
West Ham v Man City - No Bet

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting againstit winning. For example, if you're betting in the Aston Villa v Liverpool market and you lay Liverpool, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Liverpool. In this instance as near to 2.10 (11/10) as you can get. I fLiverpool don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission.If Liverpool win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Try posting your own odds on the following top five football markets:

- Football Match Odds click here
- Correct Score Football Odds click here
- Half time - Full time Football Odds click here
- Over/Under 2.5 Football Odds click here
- First Goal Scorer Odds click here

Betting Insight

2007-08-04T03:14:00.000-07:00

The Rules of football betting

Yes, as a new domestic football season gets ready to kick off it is worth re-capping on some golden rules when betting to ensure it stays fun and, importantly, that doesn't get out of hand.

1) A sure-thing does not exist in football betting.

By definition, a so-called 'sure-thing' will have a skinny price so ignore it. You are looking for value bets.

2) Bet within your means.

Put money aside for your betting in the same way you would for a hobby. Bet within your means and with money you have. DO NOT use credit cards to support your gambling. Set a budget and stick to it. When you have set your budget aside give yourself a limit on any given day - so if you have a £250 betting pot your daily limit could be 10% of that, £25.

3) Be objective when betting on football.

Use your head - there's no room for hunches. Do your research. Do not bet on your favourite team unless you can back the decision with an objective rationale which supports the decision.

4) Get the best price.

Nowadays this means using a betting exchange like Betfair. On a betting exchange, once you have worked out what price you want (value), you can create and list that price on the exchange for someone with an opposing view to match up. Alternatively register with a range of bookmakers so you can get the best price available.

5) Don't bet every day.

If you are betting everyday you are betting too much. You will also undoubtedly not be getting value. A scattergun approach is a quick route to losing your money.

6) Keep records of your bets.

You will be able to draw on your online records but it makes sense to keep a note of all betting activity. Especially if you bet online, over the phone and in the shops. In this way you can spot trends and know if you are beating the bookie or getting bashed by the bookie.

7) Focus your football betting.

Consider narrowing your betting range to one or two sports. Become an expert in that sport. If football is your thing, narrow your focus some more by only betting on say, League 2. You should endeavour to know as much as the odds compilers themselves and the only way to do that is to focus your attention. Do not bet on things you don't understand.

8) Know the numbers.

Use statistics to form the bedrock of your betting decision making. Know what does happen in a football match and attach a value to it (e.g. % home wins and much more). Then convert it into a probability of happening. When you have done that, match it to the bookmakers odds and prices. If the odds look about right or downright skinny - DON'T BET. If however, they are on the money, place your bet - or create your bet on a betting exchange.

9) Do not chase your bets

If you start chasing your bets you will not be getting value for money and you will lose your bank roll quickly. When you lose take time to reflect. Take a day or so off from betting. Do not start making betting decisions with a knee jerk reaction in an attempt to re-coup losses. Start again, do your research methodically and you will get much more satisfaction from your wins and be pragmatic with your losses.

10) Do not overreact when betting in-running.

You can make things much worse. Trust your judgement - assuming you have done your homework. Be methodical and remember you are still looking for VALUE.

Good luck.

top5bet.com

Start of Scottish Football Season

2007-08-03T12:01:00.000-07:00

The SPL starts tomorrow and we can settle into the UK domestic football season once again. It is worth reflecting on what happened last season as well as what the spread betting market makers think may happen in 2007/08.

Looking at the spread betting* markets for total SPL points is a short cut in your general betting research because they have done it for you and it can act as a decent indicator. The teams are listed below in the order they finished last season.

The figures in the brackets are the points total suggested by BetHiLo.

(Note: The first figure is the 'sell' quote. The second figure is the 'buy' quote. If you think Celtic will accumulate less than 85 points you would sell at 85. If they amassed only 80 points and you 'sold' using a £25 unit stake you would win £125. e.g. 85-80=5 * £25 = £125)

Scottish Premier League - Standings 06/07 (Spread for 07/08 in brackets)

Celtic - 84 (85-87)
Rangers - 72 (81-83)
Aberdeen - 65 (58-60)
Hearts - 61 (60-62)
Kilmarnock - 55 (48.5-50.5)
Hibernian - 49 (52-54)
Falkirk - 50 (40-42)
Inverness CT - 46 (41-43)
Dundee Utd - 42 (44.5-46.5)
Motherwell - 38 (38.5-40.5)
St Mirren - 36 (34-36)
Dunfermline - 32 (Relegated to Division 1)

Gretna (31-33)

For more on SPL all time records click here

On to tomorrow's matches and the Betting Exchange possibilities.

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following SPL match bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it. 'Linked' teams to be 'Layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

Dundee Utd 2.90 v Aberdeen
Gretna v Falkirk 2.66
Inverness CT v Rangers Lay the DRAW 4.0
St Mirren 2.40 v Motherwell

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the St Mirren v Motherwell market and you lay St Mirren, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back St Mirren. In this instance as near to 2.40 as you can get. If St Mirren don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If St Mirren win, then you pay out. For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com

Good luck!

*t5b Risk Warning - Sports spread betting involves a high level of risk and you can lose more than your original stake. It is not suitable for everyone so please ensure you understand the risks involved and only bet with money you can afford to lose.

Feeling 'Vigorish'?

2007-07-28T12:07:00.000-07:00

Vigorish (vig for short) is the amount charged by a bookmaker to ensure their profit. The term is Yiddish slang originating from the Russian word for 'winnings', vyigrysh. In the UK the vig is more commonly known as the overround which I have covered previously.

Bookies use this concept to make money on bets taken regardless of the outcome. A good bookmaker doesn't have an interest in the outcome of the action, only in getting equal action across the event. This is done by adjusting the odds to attract equal action from punters.

- A market of exactly 100% represents a no overround offer, where neither the bookmaker nor the bettor has an advantage - normally only found on exchanges such as Betfair.

- A market of greater than 100% represents a theoretical edge for the bookmaker - which is the norm.

- A market of less than 100% represents a theoretical edge for the punter - sometimes found on exchanges such as Betfair, but more usual when sharp punters are betting across a few bookmakers prices to guarantee profit. This is known as arbitrage. (I will cover arbitrage another time)

Lets take an example of an overround from the friendly match between Everton and Werder Bremen on Tuesday 31 July 2007. In the example I will use decimal odds - to convert them click here.

Everton are currently priced at 2.8
Werder Bremen are currently priced at 2.25
The Draw is currently priced at 3.25

These prices give us a percent market (overround) of 110.93% which is a theoretical hold (profit margin) of 9.85%. To see how to work this out click here.

In this example 9.85% is the portion of the combined amount wagered by all customers that the bookmaker expects to keep. It is theoretical because it applies only when the punters as a group have bet to win equal amounts on each team - that is, balanced action across the book.

The overround above is not uncommon. The lower the overround the better. Bet365 have the lowest football (soccer) overrounds in the business - 7- 8% compared with 10 - 12% from most other bookmakers. Betfair, with the ability to create market prices have allowed punters to drive down the overround further still. (Exchange punters have to contend with commission though which is another type of vig)

What about other sports? Well, lets take this evenings Greyhound racing at Sittingbourne, England. (For those interested, the 8.52pm)

On the following prices for traps 1 through to 6...

Trap 1 - 2.6
Trap 2 -4.25
Trap 3 -5.67
Trap 4 -5.67
Trap 5 -4.25
Trap 6 -5.2

...we have an overround of 40.02% and a profit margin for the bookmaker of 28.58%. Try beating those odds on a regular basis!

So what does this tell us? Well, it tells me the following:

- If you are a serious punter you need a betting exchange in your locker.
- Register with other bookmakers to take advantage of price differences to lower the overround.
- Register with other bookmakers to arbitrage your way to guaranteed profits.
- Choose your events / sports carefully. Some events offer better value than others. For example events with fewer outcomes such as football and tennis rather than greyhound racing.
- Understand the overround and you will be a better gambler!

top5bet.com

Bernard Hopkins v Winky Wright

2007-07-21T08:14:00.000-07:00

Ronald 'Winky' Wright has warned former undisputed middleweight champion Bernard Hopkins he will leave his legacy in tatters and send him "back to the retirement home" when they fight in Las Vegas tonight. Legend Hopkins (w47, l4, 1d 1no contest), has come out of retirement aged 42 to face ex-light middleweight world champion Wright.

I think the bookies may have got this one wrong. Wright (w51, l3, 1d) is favourite at 10/11 with Ladbrokes. Hopkins has face ten southpaws in his career and knocked out nine of them. And you guessed it, Wright is a southpaw - albeit a very slick southpaw.

Despite being 42 and fighting a man seven years his junior Hopkins keeps himself in great shape, is the bigger man and could just take this on points. It won't be a classic but Hopkins is a decent price on the betting exchanges for interest in the early hours.

RECOMMENDATION
Hopkins to win 2.42 - 2.50 Betfair

top5bet.com

Brazil v Argentina

2007-07-15T07:43:00.000-07:00

4.6 Brazil v 1.88 Argentina (3.85 the draw) - COPA AMERICA FINAL

At last the only game worth betting on in the Copa America has arrived. In the same way that Federer and Nadal were going to reach the final at Wimbledon these two South American giants were always going to be competing for the Copa America title in the Panchencho Romero Stadium tonight.

Argentina have been installed as favourites. Betfair layers are offering a short looking 1.48 for Argentina on the outright market with Brazil 3.05. Depending on what you think will happen in the 90 minutes (ie if you think Brazil will win inside the 90) the 1.47 will be the easiest LAY of your life. If however you believe a draw is the most likely result - taking the match into extra time - the best option would be to LAY Argentina in the match betting at 1.89 and not worry so much about who will be stronger over 120 minutes and perhaps penalties.

(Note: For more on LAYING go to top5bet.com for Betting Exchanges)

Argentina have strolled through this Copa America. They've fired home 16 goals, winning all five games. That said, they still do not have the tournament's top goal scorer - currently Brazil's Robinho with six goals.

The bookies and punters have priced this up on form alone. There appears to be no consideration in the prices that this is Brazil v Argentina in the Copa America final. And one of the most important aspects of a winning run (like Argentina's) is the longer you remain unbeaten the more likely that the run will come to an end with the next match - especially if that next match is against Brazil, in a final with national pride at stake.

The standard of the Copa America is not as high as the European equivalent - for lots of reasons. The top teams sometimes use the Copa America to blood younger players. Some teams, notably Mexico use some of there better younger players in U20 tournaments rather than the Copa. (You cannot imagine Wayne Rooney playing in the U21's or similar rather than in the full England squad can you?) And when you get past the top four of Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Uruguay the standard is not much better than the African Nations.

It may be a bad analogy but I cannot help thinking this game may go the same way as the Amir Khan, Willie Limon fight last night. Khan has been knocking out lesser opponents with ease to give himself a 12w-0l record. Last night he fought a more experienced opponent in Limond and at one point it looked as if the Olympic Silver medallist's World Champion aspirations would go up in smoke as he was knocked to the floor. Khan became a different fighter after the knock down and went on to break Limond's jaw and win the fight and the Commonwealth lightweight belt.

So yes, the form team is Argentina and they are on a roll - beating canon fodder in the same way as a young up-and-coming boxer is matched up against powder puff opponents before coming up against a worthy adversary. And let's face it Brazil are a worthy adversary!

The match will be hotly contested - think Ranger's v Celtic with flair - and I can see the match ending in a draw to take us into extra-time - not ideal for a game starting at 22.05 tonight!. And you never know, the boxing analogy might be on the button with some tasty tackles and heated exchanges. Let's hope there are no broken jaws though.

Whatever happens it will be worht staying up for. The game kicks off 22.05 BST.

RECOMMENDATION
LAY Argentina at 1.88, Betfair (No more than 15% of your betting bank)

top5bet.com for Betting Exchanges
top5bet.com for Fixed Odds

Women's Grand Slam Tennis Farce

2007-07-13T08:17:00.000-07:00

Women's tennis gets me excitable for all the wrong reasons.

Yes, women now get paid the same as their male counterparts at Wimbledon. That's good because it is quite right that men and women get paid the same amount for doing the same job. The only thing is it isn't the same job is it? If you look at the two Wimbledon Singles Champions this year, Roger Federer and Venus Williams respectively, then examine the number of sets and games played en-route to glory you find two very different pictures emerging.

The flawless Roger Federer played 21 sets and 204 games on his way to equalling Bjorn Borg's 5 successive Wimbledon titles. To put that in context, Tommy Haas, Federer's 4th round opponent pulled out with an injury giving the stylish Federer a bye into the quarter finals.

The grunting Venus Williams on the other hand played 16 sets and 146 games. That equates to a mismatch in games/sets played of around 75%. When you consider that Federer played one less match in total than Venus Williams this figure is generous as an illustration.

So, taking this year - and I have no reason to believe it was an unusual year - female tennis players at Wimbledon should be paid a maximum of three quarters what the male champion receives - a still princely sum of £525,000 - if they really are demanding equality. Critics of my assertion will say this is too simplistic but if you input more variables than just the games and sets played you can find more evidence still to back it up.

Only Grand Slam tournaments bring this situation to the boil with men playing best of five sets rather than best of three. Talking of more variables it is indeed the five set matches which are the most memorable, exciting, dramatic and ultimately what the spectator's are paying to see. At 2-0 down a men's tennis match could just be about to get interesting. In the women's game it is literally game set and match.

What has this got to do with betting? Absolutely nothing. It was a pedestrian event for gambling purposes because the mens favourite won (and was always going to) and as soon as Williams got into her stride the outcome was inevitable.My point is, the female of the species, and those that demanded 'equality' in particular may have done more harm than good in the overall fight for equality between men and women in all walks of life and that's a great shame.

Own a football club

2007-06-25T03:17:00.000-07:00

My Football Club

40,279 football enthusiasts will already know this but there is an interesting project well underway just next door to top5bet.com where you can buy an equal share - and therefore equal say on the operation - of a professional football club. myfootballclub.co.uk is a website and project clearly disillusioned at the influx of American, Russian and now Thai money, ownership and rule of the beautiful game in England.

To make sure you are part of the action register for free on the site. You will have to part with a very reasonable £35 to get involved and secure your membership and you only part with your money when the project is fully subscribed - that's 50,000 people and currently 9,721 short of the target.

Read more about this exciting project on the BBC sports pages.

...................................................................................

HOW DOES IT WORK? (Note: This section is lifted directly from myfootballclub.co.uk, for more information take a look here)

The moment the football club is purchased, you will automatically become a member of its Industrial and Provident Society, owning an equal share and therefore having an equal say in the running of the football club.

You will vote on team selection and formation. You will also have a say in tactics, by voting for your preferred style of play and substitutions depending on match situations. The Head Coach will field the 11 players, formation and tactics chosen by MyFootballClub members.
To help your decision-making, the Head Coach and players will give regular video briefings. There will also be reports from the training ground and members can submit Opposition Scouting Reports.

...................................................................................

It looks like good fun and we will be keeping a close eye on the purchase, operation and success of the football club that is bought. In particular the fun to be had backing or laying the team on the betting exchanges. It is afterall the betting exchange equivalent of buying a football club - designed by the people involved and not a corporate ego-maniac. (I expect a lot of Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday, Nottingham Forest and Millwall fans to get involved!)

Scott Mowbray

Hatton v Castillo

2007-06-21T08:03:00.000-07:00

Hatton v Castillo
Las Vegas
Sunday 24 June, 0400 BST

FIRST THINGS FIRST: Is now the time to oppose Ricky Hatton?

Both fighters struggle to make the weight and Hatton has suggested he will pull out if Castillo doesn't hit the 140 pound limit. The bookies make it a 1/2 shot to go the distance (Extrabet) with Hatton 5/4 (VCBet) and Castillo 13/4 (Bet 365) to win on points. An issue with weight - for both fighters - makes a late stoppage highly likely as both men get tired and risk a sucker punch.

SECOND THINGS SECOND: Don't believe the hype!

Hatton is also in danger of believing his own hype. Messing around having Barrerra bring his belts in, calling himself the Manchester Mexican for this fight shows a real lack of focus.

And yes, Hatton beat a fading Kosta Tszyu but he has never stood toe-to-toe with proper Mexican bombs.

THIRD THINGS THIRD: Hatton to struggle with improved and experienced opponent

Jose Luis Castillo has belittled Hatton's unbeaten record and vowed to bring it to an end when the pair meet on Saturday night to contest the IBO light-welterweight title. I have a sneaky feeling he could be right as there always comes a time in a boxer's career when they think they only have to turn up to keep the title.

RECOMMENDATION

For interest, which let's face it you'll need at 4am in the morning...

Back Castillo to win at 9/5 Bet365
Back Castillo to win in Round 8 at 60.0 (59/1) Betfair (Small Stakes)
Back Castillo to win on points 13/4 Bet 365

For free bets visit top5bet.com

Derby v West Brom

2007-05-28T05:39:00.000-07:00

Should West Brom take the glory this afternoon they will join Birmingham and Sunderland back in the Premiership. It will be the first time that all three relegated clubs have bounced back again at the first time of asking.

Derby finished a full eight points ahead of the Baggies in the regular season but finished woefully, winning just two of their final six games. The two wins came against Luton and Leeds and we all know what happened to them.

West Brom are favourites because they have the strikeforce and Derby's rear guard of late has been poor. West Brom play with wingers and Phillips and Kamara do the finishing - 45 between them in all competitions this season.

What do Derby have? They have a manager in Billy Davies who knows how to lose in the play-offs. Can he use that to help him win it? Well, maybe but it won't be pretty. They will rely on Steve Howard's aerial ability from set-pieces and a long ball game in general. The Championship Play Off final isn't about entertainment afterall - it's about winning.

In my recommendations on Saturday I suggested laying West Brom. And that hasn't changed. I can see a draw over the 90 minutes to take the game into extra time, and with so much at stake, a winner on penalties.

One thing to note. There have been only two clean sheets in the last eight meetings between Derby and West Brom.

RECOMMENDATION

Steve Howard to Score 3.5 at Betfair

and already recommended

LAY West Brom 2.32 at Betfair

Weekend Recommendation's and Kaka

2007-05-26T05:26:00.000-07:00

Before proceeding with this weekends recommendations I have a question. If Milan had lost to Liverpool in Wednesday night's Champions League Final would Kaka have still, 'Belonged to Jesus'?

My guess is he certainly wouldn't have displayed his t-shirt and prayed at the end of the game had he been a loser. And what does that tell us? That he's a Jesus loving Brazilian boy with good teeth and he wants to give Jesus the pat on the back when he wins stuff. And it must of had something to do with Jesus because Kaka was rubbish. It's just Kaka's kind of rubbish is a little more polished than Zenden & Kewell's kind of rubbish.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com - NEW SITE COMING SOON!

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward.

With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)
If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

May 26 2007

League 2 Play-Off Final
Bristol Rover's 2.30 v Shrewsbury

League 1 Play-Off Final
Blackpool v Yeovil 3.50

Championship Play-Off Final
Derby v West Brom 2.34

Scottish Cup Final
Celtic (-1.5) 2.04 v Dunfermline

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Derby v West Brom market and you lay West Brom, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back West Brom. In this instance as near to 2.34 as you can get. If West Brom don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If West Brom win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Liverpool v AC Milan

2007-05-23T05:48:00.000-07:00

You will notice that this is the first blog entry on here since the 13th May. The simple reason is it is good to have a break from punting. There has not been much value around and so we haven't been chasing the next event or betting opportunity. Being selective and finding value are the two most important things to consider when maintaining and hopefully growing your betting bank.

So, the Champions League Final is upon us and let's be thankful Manchester United and Chelsea will not be contesting the season's showpiece event. What an awful FA Cup final.

Anyway, so what does the betting look like for this evening's Athens showdown?

The Betting Exchanges are providing the value for the match for 'backers' in general although inclusive of commission, Betfred's 8/11 about Milan lifting the trophy betters the Exchange.

AC Milan v Liverpool, Match Betting (Betfair)
Milan 2.44 Back 2.46 Lay
Liverpool 3.6 Back 3.65 Lay
Draw 3.15 Back 3.20 Lay

Champions League - Winner 2006/07 (Betfair)
Milan 1.73 Back 1.74 Lay
Liverpool 2.36 Back 2.38 Lay

So, Milan are favourites. This is interesting because it is almost certainly as a result of their impressive victory over Manchester United in the San Siro in the semi final. Liverpool have had by far the tougher route to the final. In the group stage they had PSV, Bordeaux and Galatasaray. Compare this to Milan's group stage opponents - Lille, AEK Athens and Anderlecht. (Incidentally AEK Athens beat them 1-0 so they have already tasted defeat in the Olympic Stadium Athens this year.)

As the teams progressed Liverpool had to conquer Spanish giants Barcelona, PSV and Chelsea. Milan had a slightly easier route in Celtic, an out of sorts Bayern Munich team and a batting collapse from Manchester United that the England cricket team would have been shamed by.

Liverpool have had a good rest and coasted into the final few games of the season with 3rd/4th spot in the Premier League more or less in the bag. They lost to Portsmouth, Fulham and drew with Charlton. These games were mere run-outs for the Liverpool players. Likewise for Milan, drawing two of their last three and losing the penultimate domestic match in the San Siro 3-2 (Udinese). So, no real indicators can be found from the team's most recent fixtures.

It will come down to who wants it more and style of play. Liverpool, in Europe, will be a far tougher proposition than Manchester United with their eye pleasing football. Liverpool are made for Europe, have a better defence, varied options in attack (Strength, Height, Pace) and Steven Gerrard. Milan have experience but enough players playing this evening with memories of Istanbul to give them nightmares!

Possible Lineups

Milan: Dida; Massimo Oddo, Alessandro Nesta, Paolo Maldini, Marek Jankulovski; Gennaro Gattuso, Andrea Pirlo, Massimo Ambrosini; Kaká, Clarence Seedorf; Filippo Inzaghi.

Liverpool: Pepe Reina; Steve Finnan, Jamie Carragher, Daniel Agger, John Arne Riise; Steven Gerrard, Javier Mascherano, Xabi Alonso, Boudewijn Zenden/Harry Kewell; Peter Crouch, Dirk Kuyt.

RECOMMENDATION

Take Liverpool to be crowned European Champions at 2.36 Betfair.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Weekend Recommendations

2007-05-13T04:39:00.000-07:00

It's the final day of the Premiership season and it is about to get very nasty at the bottom. If the Premiership was only about the last eight matches West Ham would be top of the league. Wigan on the other hand would be rock bottom. The second half of the season has seen Paul Jewell's men collapse like a pack of cards. I'd take them to be playing Scunthorpe next year. There is no way Ferguson is going to play his strongest eleven and West Ham will get the result they need to stay up. And let's face it the Premiership will be better off for keeping West Ham and losing Wigan whose half empty stadium is an embarrassment to the so called 'best league in the world'.

This weekends Premiership tips

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'. (odds displayed in decimal format, click here for odds conversion)

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

May 14 2007

Premiership
Manchester United 1.84 v West Ham
Bolton 2.30 v Aston Villa
Chelsea 1.72 v Everton
Middlesbrough 1.85 v Fulham
Portsmouth v Arsenal 2.4
Sheffield United v Wigan 3.5
Watford 2.64 v Newcastle

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Bolton v Aston Villa market and you lay Bolton, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Bolton. In this instance as near to 2.30 (13/10) as you can get. If Bolton don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Bolton win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Match Preview - Spurs v Blackburn

2007-05-10T08:24:00.000-07:00

Tottenham v Blackburn
White Hart Lane
Thursday, 10 May
Kick-off: 2000 BST

With UEFA Cup places up for grabs, both teams will see this as a must-win game. Tottenham finally kept a clean sheet on Monday night (against a lacklustre Charlton) and Bertbatov did the rest. Blackburn will fancy their chances this evening but I expect Spurs to take the spoils. They have taken seven more points (23) than Blackburn (16) over the past ten games and home advantage will tell in tonight's encounter.

Tottenham - last 5 games
Games won: 2 Games draw: 2 Games lost: 1

Tottenham Home Form - 17 Games
League rank 7
Wins 65%
Draws 12%
Losses 24%
Clean Sheets 4
Goal Strike rate Every 49 Min
Goal concede rate Every 76 Min

Blackburn - last 5 games
Games won:3 Games draw:1 Games lost:1

Blackburn Away 18 Games
League rank 6
Wins 33%
Draws 17%
Losses 50%
Clean Sheets 5
Goal Strike rate Every 81 Min
Goal concede rate Every 57 Min

Betting Exchanges - odds from Betfair
Tottenham Back 1.95 Lay 1.96
Blackburn Back 4.5 Lay 4.6
Draw Back 3.7 Lay 3.75

Overround 100.80%

Bookmakers
Tottenham 17/20 Bet 365
Blackburn 7/2 Tote
Draw 11/4 Boyle Sports

Overround 102.93%

RECOMMENDATION

BACK Tottenham at 1.95 Betfair
BACK Tottenham 2-1 correct score 9.8 Betfair

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview - Chelsea v Manchester United

2007-05-09T09:35:00.000-07:00

Stamford Bridge Wednesday, 9 May
Kick-off: 2000 BST

Chelsea v Man Utd, a pointless game with lots of players rested. There might just be some value in there somewhere. The only thing that could make this season better for Man United now that they have won the league is to snatch Chelsea's proud unbeaten home record. Both sides will be missing regular starters but I can see Man United winning tonights match, further rubbing salt in Mourinho's wounds. At 7/2 they are worth a bet to small stakes.

On the betting exchanges
Chelsea Back 2.06 Lay 2.08
Man U Back 4.5 Lay 4.6
Draw Back 3.35 Lay 3.4

For odds conversion click here

Traditional bookies
Chelsea 11/10 Paddy Power
Man U 3/1 VC Bet
Draw 23/10 Paddy Power

Corresponding Fixture - 2006-11-26
Manchester U – Chelsea 1 - 1

Chelsea Home record
League rank 4
Wins 71%
Draws 29%
Losses 0%
Clean Sheets 10
Goal Strike Rate Every 42 Min
Goal Concede Rate Every 153 Min

Popular scores for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge
3 – 0, 4 times
1 – 0, 4 times
2 – 2, 3 times
4 – 0, 2 times
2 – 1, 2 times

5 Match record

Games won:2 Games draw:3 Games lost:0

Man U away record
League rank 1
Wins 72%
Draws 11%
Losses 17%
Clean Sheets 7
Goal Strike Rate Every 43 Min
Goal Concede Rate Every 108 Min

Popular scores for Man U away from home
1 – 2, 4 times
0 – 1, 3 times
0 – 4, 2 times
0 – 3, 2 times
2 – 1, 2 times

5 Match record

Games won:3 Games draw:1 Games lost:1

RECOMMENDATION

(Small Stakes)
Back Man United 4.35 Betfair or
Lay Chelsea 2.06 Betfair
1-2 Manchester United Correct Score 14/1 Blue Square

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview - Charlton v Spurs

2007-05-07T03:35:00.000-07:00

Charlton Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur

Charlton's 5 most recent matches have seen them win none, draw 3 and lose 2. When you are fighting relegation those sort of statistics make for uncomfortable reading.

Spurs on the other hand - in the same period - have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1. Only de-throned Champions Chelsea have taken more points from London derbies than Spurs this season. That said, Spurs haven't had a clean sheet away from home since drawing 0-0 with (now)relegated Watford last October.

Charlton's home record is not brilliant but also not the reason they find themselves in the relegation dogfight. They have recorded 39% home wins, 28% draw and 33% losses with a respectable 8 clean sheets. (Away from home they have won only 6%, lost 72% and drawn 22%)

Spurs away record is not great with 22% won, 33% drawn and 44% lost on the road. The only clean sheet away from White Hart Lane came against the worst side in the division this term so Charlton will fancy their chances of hitting the net this evening.

Spurs thrashed Charlton 5-1 in December but the Addicks have improved marginally since then and will be fighting for their lives this evening in an attempt to beat the drop.

Traditional Bookmakers
Charlton 11/5 Bet365
Tottenham 13/10 Paddy Power
Draw 13/5 Totesport

Betting Exchanges - Betfair
Charlton Back 3.45 Lay 3.5
Tottenham Back 2.2 Lay 2.22
Draw Back 3.75 Lay 3.8

Betfair is the best option about the Charlton win and draw, Paddy Power for the Spurs win.

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Spurs at 2.22, Betfair

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Weekend Recommendations

2007-05-05T03:11:00.000-07:00

De La Hoya v Mayweather

2007-05-04T05:07:00.000-07:00

Oscar de la Hoya v Floyd Mayweather
Date: Sunday 6 May
Start: 0330 BST
Venue: Las Vegas, MGM Grand

Follow this link, Oscar de la Hoya v Floyd Mayweather, it's one of the best previews of a fight I have seen. If you don't want to read the entire article here is the prediction from Don Steinberg.

Prediction - from Don Steinberg, Philadelphia Inquirer
Mayweather, by decision. Mayweather has become skilled at doing just enough to win every round, and it's very easy to imagine him doing that here and winning on points. But De La Hoya is better at stealing rounds -- when that 10-seconds-left clapper sounds, it can be like a signal for him to make a round-ending flurry in an effort to take the 10 points on judges' scorecards. Close rounds, especially those when fighters take turns dominating, might be scored either way. Judges see things differently, and it will only take one judge scoring it even, with the other two split, to make a draw.

Oscar De LaHoya
Date of Birth - 1973-02-04
Age - 34
Reach 73”
Stance - Orthodox
Height - 5' 10½
Trainer - Freddie Roach
W 38 (30 ko's) L 4 D 0 Total 42

Floyd Mayweather
Date of Birth - 1977-02-24
Age - 30
Reach - 72''
Stance - Orthodox
Height - 5' 8
Trainer - Roger Mayweather
W 37 (24 ko's) L 0 D 0 Total 37

The Betting

Match Bet
Floyd Mayweather (1/2 Ladbrokes)
Oscar De La Hoya (15/8 Coral)
Draw (20/1 VC Bet)

Floyd Mayweather - On Points, Evens Betfred
Oscar De La Hoya - On Points, 3/1 Paddy Power

Fight to go the distance
Yes 2/7 Ladbrokes
No 5/2 Ladbrokes

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Champions League Final

2007-05-03T04:09:00.000-07:00

And so it came to pass, a Liverpool v AC Milan Champions League Final.

Betting Exchange v Bookmakers

Bookmakers - Outright Champions League

AC Milan 5/6 Ladbrokes
Liverpool 11/10 Betfred

Betfair - Outright Champions League

AC Milan 1.8 Back 1.81 Lay
Liverpool 2.24 Back 2.26 Lay

Bookmakers - Match betting

AC Milan 6/4 Bet365
Liverpool 15/8 Bet365
Draw 21/10 Skybet

How Will Match be Won? Betting Odds from Blue Square

AC Milan in 90 Minutes 6/4
Liverpool in 90 Minutes 15/8
AC Milan in Extra Time 8/1
Liverpool on Penalties 10/1
AC Milan on Penalties 11/1
Liverpool in Extra Time 11/1

Commentary and build up to come...

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview - AC Milan v Man U

2007-05-02T09:41:00.000-07:00

After a last gasp winner last week Manchester United go into tonights match needing only a draw to secure their place in Athens for the Champions League Final. Alex Ferguson's team talk will be an easy one with Liverpool their known opponents.

AC Milan are not the mugs that the Racing Post have made them out to be, 'Creaking Milan not as solid as reputation'. This is not Serie A. They have a very good, experienced team. When it suits, people tend to swop 'experience' for 'old'. These boys, on their own patch, two away goals and a Champions League final berth with Liverpool to play for. The value is with Milan to progress.

Manchester United are 1.70 to qualify and that is an easy LAY for me. AC Milan are 2.42 to qualify.

The stage is set for a rematch of the 2005 final between Liverpool and AC Milan.

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Manchester United 1.70 Betfair or

BACK AC Milan to qualify 2.42 Betfair

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview - Liverpool v Chelsea

2007-05-01T03:54:00.000-07:00

Liverpool v Chelsea, Champions League Semi Final.

Okay, so it was first blood to Chelsea and their fans did their level best to create an atmosphere to help their team along. (Compared to the Valencia game anyway, when you could hear a pin drop) But this is different. Liverpool's home form this season has been very good - a 78% strike rate - which would see them 2nd in the Premiership table. This includes a 2-0 win over Chelsea and tonights game has something in common with that occasion. That is, Carvalho was missing in January and misses out again tonight. John Terry is always considered the 'rock' in the Chelsea defence but it is Carvalho that holds it all together for Chelsea. He will be sorely missed and will be an area Benitez looks to expose - probably with Crouch up against midfielder turned centre-half Essien.

Chelsea have had 11 clean sheets away from home in the league compared to 13 home clean sheets from The Reds. This looks like being a tight affair with Chelsea soaking up Liverpool pressure and countering in search of the away goal.

Liverpool are best backed with Bet365 at 7/5 as they are currently trading at 2.4 on Betfair.
If you fancy Chelsea or the Draw Betfair punters are listing better prices than the bookies at 3.6 and 3.2 respectively.

RECOMMENDATION
Chelsea are 2/5 to qualify (Betfair) and that is worth Laying with it being so tight. You have to weigh up Chelsea's ability to get an away goal with the fact the game is being played at Anfield and the record Liverpool have on their home patch. Ultimately it will come down to who wants it more - and for me, that will be Liverpool.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview - Reading v Newcastle

2007-04-30T09:44:00.000-07:00

There are two things, and two things only to get excited about this evening's game between Reading and Newcastle United. One is the value about a Reading home win at Evens 1/1 (Bet365). The other is the possibility of seeing Michael Owen back in action. Yes, Reading still have a chance of European qualification but this is a nothing game. Glenn Roeder's men have only won 4 games away from home all season whilst Reading's home - 57% strike rate - is the reason they are sitting comfortably in mid-table rather than scrapping to survive the relegation trap-door (Away record 28% w - 50% l)

Reading have taken 7 points from their last 5 league games compared to Newcastle's 5 points over the same time period. Newcastle have been good away against top four opposition but have lost at the mighty Wigan, Charlton, Fulham and Middlesbrough.

Murty, Little, Lita, Convey, Sonko, Mate and Brown are all out for Reading. Newcastle are without Given and Duff and Scott Parker is a doubt. If Newcastle did not have these key players out you could make a case for Newcastle taking the spoils. As it is the price of Evens (Bet365) should be snapped up as the value bet. (They should be nearer 8/11)

RECOMMENDATION
Reading are the value bet at Evens with Bet365. Betfair punters are currently pricing Reading at 2.04. If you include commission at the top rate (5%) for a stake of £100 you will return £98.80

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Weekend Recommendations

2007-04-28T03:03:00.000-07:00

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

28 April 2007

Premiership
Middlesbrough v Tottenham 2.62
Everton v Manchester United 1.72
Portsmouth v Liverpool 2.20

Championship
Plymouth v Preston 2.4
Stoke 2.10 v Colchester

League 1
Crewe v Tranmere 3.0

League 2
Grimsby v Lincoln 2.64

Scottish Division 3
Dumbarton v Queen's Park 2.76

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Portsmouth v Liverpool market and you lay Liverpool, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Liverpool. In this instance as near to 2.20 (6/5) as you can get. If Liverpool don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Liverpool win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Champions League - Man U v Milan

2007-04-24T06:37:00.000-07:00

Manchester United v AC Milan

Bet Now on THE betting exchange Betfair - Manchester United 2.18 Draw 3.2 AC Milan 4.2 (Back Prices Quoted)

The Racing Post suggest, 'no need for nerves, you can trust Man United to nail AC Milan in the first leg of this Champions League clash. Now, if they were talking about Middlesbrough I would have no argument and we know what happened there. Man U were short priced favourites against Boro' and drew 1-1. Maybe they had one eye on this match? Maybe they're feeling the heat? I cannot see them getting past AC Milan over two legs with the decider on their patch.

The RP refers to Milan's ordinary away form in an ordinary league. This however, is no ordinary match! And Milan will not capitulate in the same way as Roma. I expect a low scoring affair with AC Milan being dogged in defence and countering to good effect with Kaka the man to watch for Milan.

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Manchester United 2.14 or
BACK Under 1.5 Goals at 3.05 Betfair (small stakes)

................................................

Chelsea v Liverpool

Bet Now on THE betting exchange Betfair - Chelsea 2.22 Draw 3.2 Liverpool 4.0 (Back Prices Quoted)

Chelsea are favourites for no other reason than the bookmakers and media think it would make a dream final match up with Manchester United. Chelsea have injuries. Liverpool do not. Frank Lampard was rubbish against Newcastle. Stevie Gerrard was rested and kept his eye in with a stroll against Wigan. He will be fresher than Snow White before she got involved with that dirty little dwarf Grumpy. Plus, he is - in general - a far superior player to the massively overated Lampard (If he was in the West Ham team would he make them a much better team without the Chelsea superstars all around him?). Chelsea are scared to death of history repeating itself. They are still scarred by what happened in 2005 and still bemoan the goal - that was given - so get over it. Liverpool are underdogs and that will suit Benitez's men fine. The RP suggest the fight for the domestic title is taking it's toll on Chelsea and I would concur with that view.

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Chelsea 2.20 Betfair

BACK Liverpool to qualify 2.24 Betfair

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview - Burnley v West Brom

2007-04-23T09:21:00.000-07:00

Burnley (16th) v West Brom (5th)

Burnley go into this match with some form - four wins in five matches. West Brom however have been shakier than an eighty year old after 10 pints. They are in danger of losing a hotly contested and highly prized play-off place if they don't arrest their slide in form. They need the points and so it would be easy to side with them. I think they will come unstuck again and take BURNLEY on the Asian Handicap or a simple LAY (on the Betting Exchanges) of West Brom. Over 2.5 goals is worth a bet to small stakes as I think West Brom will concede but should score. I'm not a big fan of correct score betting (vast over-round) but 2-1 to Burnley wouldn't surprise me.

Last time out
2006-11-18 West Bromwich - Burnley 3 - 0

Recent Form - 5 matches
Burnley: won 4, drawn 0, lost 1
West Brom: won 2, drawn 1, lost 2

Form - 06/07
Burnley 21 home games: 43% W, 29% D, 29% L, 9 clean sheets

West Brom 21 away games: 33% W, 29% D, 38% L, 3 clean sheets

Most frequent results
Burnley
Home
0 - 1 3 times
2 - 0 3 times
0 - 0 3 times
1 - 2 2 times
1 - 1 2 times

West Bromwich
Away
1 - 1 3 times
1 - 2 3 times
1 - 0 3 times
2 - 0 2 times
2 - 2 2 times

RECOMMENDATION

LAY West Brom at 2.26 Betfair or

BACK Burnley on the Asian Handicap +0&+0.5 at 2.04 Betfair (Assume £100 stake = £104 If Burnley win, £52 if match is a draw, -£100 if West Brom win)

BACK Over 2.5 Goals 2.14 Betfair

Bet now

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Weekend Recommendations

2007-04-20T09:44:00.000-07:00

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

14 April 2007

Premiership
Tottenham v Arsenal 2.64
Aston Villa v Portsmouth 3.25
Manchester United 1.2 v Middlesbrough
Watford 2.62 v Manchester City

Championship
QPR V Cardiff 3.25
Norwich v Ipswich 3.0

League 1
Bradford v Leyton Orient 3.25
Carlisle v Bristol City 2.76
Gillingham v Port Vale 3.5

League 2
Bristol Rovers v Lincoln 3.2

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Tottenham v Arsenal market and you lay Arsenal, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Arsenal. In this instance as near to 2.64 (13/8) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

...................................................................

Spurs can take advantage of the David Dein saga by beating Arsenal on Sunday. Once again Spurs have flattered to deceive this season and will end up with no silverware. The North London Derby is all that's left for them and I expect Berbatov and Co. to take revenge on their bitter North London rivals who beat them in the last four of the Carling Cup. A win for Spurs will also keep alive their hopes of a UEFA Cup place for next season. Arsenal go into this match with a long unbeaten run (17 matches). It's worth noting though, that six out of seven of the most recent matches at White Hart Lane have ended in a stalemate. (The odd one out being the 4-5 reverse in 04/05) It will be interesting to see if the events of this week - David Dein throwing the baby out with the bath water - take their toll on Arsene Wenger's underachieving squad.

RECOMMENDATION

Already recommended LAY Arsenal with Betfair at 2.64

Manchester United and Chelsea are still fighting it out for the title but there is another big game this weekend albeit at the wrong end of the table. Yes, Charlton v Sheffield United is not destined to be a classic but for both sets of fans it will be a nail biter. Alan Pardew has done a decent job with Charlton in their struggle against relegation. They have lost just one of their last seven games but still find themselves in the dreaded drop zone. A win for the Addicks and they leapfrog Warnock's men. A win for Sheffield United and Charlton are as good as relegated along with West Ham and Watford. Sheffield United have been awful away from home winning only three games, drawing one and losing thirteen. Charlton on the other hand have won more games than Aston Villa (7 places higher in the league) at home.

RECOMMENDATION

Sheffield United beat Charlton 2-1 in December and a 2-1 Correct Score in Charlton favour (to small stakes) feels about right this time - available at 9.6, Betfair

Over 2.5 Goals 2.22 - Betfair

Match Preview - Norwich v Ipswich

2007-04-19T01:05:00.000-07:00

The Canaries are 15th in the League and their home form is very ordinary with 48% won, 19% drawn and 33% lost and 7 clean sheets over 21 games. The Tractor Boys are just ahead of their East Anglian rivals in 14th position with an away record of 24% won, 19% drawn, 57% lost and only 2 clean sheets.

So Norwich are fair at home and Ipswich are terrible away but come into the game with better form than their hosts having won 4 out of the last 5, including a 5-1 thrashing of Barnsley. Norwich on the other hand have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 outings.

Both teams have caused their fans much frustration this year and with nothing to play for but local pride expect this to be a tasty affair with not much quality. The formbook suggests Under 2.5 goals but this is a derby and with little quality on show from either rearguard I can see goals in this match.

Most frequent results for both sides:

Norwich Home
1 - 0 5 times
1 - 1 3 times
1 - 2 3 times
0 - 1 2 times
2 - 0 1 times

Ipswich Away
1 - 0 7 times
2 - 0 3 times
2 - 2 2 times
1 - 3 2 times
2 - 5 1 times

Norwich are best priced 13/10 with Bet365 (also best price about the draw at 11/5) and Coral go 2/1 about the Ipswich win.

Betfair offer better prices for this match and you should be able to get 2.4 Norwich (currently 2.36), 3.2 Ipswich (currently 3.15) and 3.5 the draw (currently 3.45)

RECOMMENDATION

BACK Norwich at 2.4 or better with Betfair

BACK Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 or better with Betfair

Bet Now...

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Betting Insight

2007-04-19T00:34:00.000-07:00

I was listening to Talksport last night and a PR guy from Coral was doing his usual preamble about that evening's games (all predictable short priced affairs) and he said he thought Chelsea were certainties and the other two games were going to end up as draws.

He was asked what the odds were for those outcomes and he confidently quoted Chelsea at 2/5, Liverpool v Middlesbrough draw 3/1 and Blackburn v Watford draw at 5/2.

The presenter then asked Mr Coral what the odds would be for that treble. Cue well controlled meltdown, 'Er...umm...I never was very good at maths.' Some nervous laughter then, 'I was always in the bookies instead of school'.

In that case surely he should have been able to do a quick calculation in his head to work out the treble came to almost 20/1. (The sum was 1.4 x 4 x 3.5* = 19.6)

The 1.4 is derived from 2/5 = 0.4 + 1 which gives you 1.4. Odds against prices, in this case, 5/2 and 3/1 are simpler to work out admittedly. You just divide them by each other, add one and times all the numbers together*.

A £10 treble on the above selections would have returned £196.00. As we now know Chelsea, Liverpool and Blackburn all won which perhaps makes all this pointless. It is worth considering however that many people will back these selections blind cos' he's a man on the radio!

Something to remember is, bookmakers sponsoring radio shows will invariably offer up selections they are happy to lay. They are not tipsters trying to beat the bookie - they are the bookie.

So the moral of all this is never trust a bookie on the radio and certainly one that's rubbish at maths!

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

German Cup Semi-Final

2007-04-17T07:10:00.000-07:00

Nuremberg v Eintracht Frankfurt

Traditional Bookmaker - prices

Coral are - surprisingly - best priced (10/11) about Nuremberg to beat Frankfurt this evening in the German Cup semi-final. Coral are also best price about the draw at 9/4 and Ladbrokes are (joint) best price about a Frankfurt win at 10/3.

Coral have a book of 112.8% on the match. If you replace Coral's 12/5 with Ladbrokes 10/3 about the Frankfurt win we have a book of 106.48%.

Betting Exchange - prices

Odds from Betfair

Nuremburg - Back 2.1, Lay 2.12
Frankfurt - Back 4.2, Lay 4.4
Draw - Back 3.4, Lay 4.4

(100.8% Back, 98.9% Lay)

Betfair are best priced for a Nuremburg win and the draw but Ladbrokes are standout on the Frankfurt win.

Nuremburg have had a good season and are 5th in the league with 8 wins, 6 draws and only one defeat (8-6-1). Their away form however is ordinary having lost 4 times, drawn 8 and won only twice.(4-8-2)

Frankfurt are 12th in the Bundesliga with a home record of 4-5-5 and away form of 3-8-4. Both teams draw far too often (N=48%, F=45%) to back Nuremburg comfortably at a shade of odds on.

RECOMMENDATION

BACK the draw on Betfair at 3.4 or

LAY Nuremburg on Betfair at a range of 2.06 - 2.10 to see if the market bites.

Bet Now...

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Midweek Recommendations

2007-04-17T00:42:00.000-07:00

The following recommendations require a Betting Exchange such as Betfair or Betdaq to LAY selections. LAY simply means you don't think that selection will win. When you LAY a team in a football match you have the opposition and the draw on your side.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'.

April 17 2007

Premiership
Arsenal 1.44 v Manchester City

Championship
Burnley 2.10 v Norwich City

Scottish Division 1
Clyde v St Johnstone 2.10

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Burnley v Norwich City market and you lay Burnley, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Burnley. In this instance as near to 2.10 (11/10) as you can get. If Burnley don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Burnley win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

............................................

Best Price League Table - 14/15 April

Bet 365: Total 27 Home 13 Away 14
Blue Square: Total 23 Home 8 Away 15
Tote: Total 23 Home 12 Away 11
Ladbrokes: Total 20 Home 9 Away 11
VCBet: Total 19 Home 10 Away 9
Paddy Power: Total 19 Home 9 Away 10
Skybet: Total 18 Home 10 Away 8
Bet Direct: Total 15 Home 9 Away 6
Betfred : Total 15 Home 7 Away 8
Coral: Total 10 Home 2 Away 8
William Hill: Total 7 Home 4 Away 3

Note: Across FA Cup, Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, SPL, Scottish 1, 2 and 3.
Across the big 3 bookies, Ladbrokes are consistently streets ahead of Coral and William Hill. If your main betting activity is UK football you are wasting a lot of money by sticking with Coral and Hills. Getting the best price available about a team is one of the most important aspects of maintaining your betting bank. They are lazy prices from overfed odds-compilers. And the only way to change that is to vote with your feet, (or...er mouse) and bet elsewhere.

Looking at Betfair prices over the weekend it was fair to say they were better than Bet 365 on most matches. The European matches across Primera Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga found Betfair wanting with odds (to back) lower than some bookmakers and matching the best price on others. Clearly, with commission taken from winning bets on Betting Exchanges you'd be better off placing your bet with the bookmaker in those circumstances.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Champions League Final

2007-04-16T00:41:00.000-07:00

A quick update on Champions League Betting. An all English final is 1/2 and most layers seem to think Manchester United and Chelsea would not only be the most likely final pairing but also the 'dream' final!

The European pedigree however, sits with the 'outsiders' AC Milan and Liverpool. Milan have won the European Cup six times and finished runners-up on four occasions. Liverpool have won it five times. Manchester United and Chelsea cannot compete with that record at any level.

Manchester United have been installed as favourites because of the 7-1 thumping they dished out to an ordinary Roma side. Roma have a good record in Serie A this season but it is a weakened league in the aftermath of match fixing. The previous week Manchester United were beaten by Portsmouth. They still have defensive concerns with Neville and Vidic (et al) out and rely heavily on Ronaldo and Rooney coming up with the goods.

Liverpool may be inconsistent in the Premier League, in no small part to their ordinary away form, but when it comes to the Champions League they have the right players and right coach to win the tournament again. The second leg against Chelsea is at Anfield which is a massive advantage to the Reds in that tie.

Milan have not been great in Serie A this year but they have the players and the big match experience (e.g. 0-2 away to Bayern in semi-final) to frustrate Manchester United and it would be no surprise at all to see them in Athens playing Liverpool in a rematch of the memorable 2005 final.

Champions League Win Market Betting Odds - Odds supplied by Bet365

Man Utd 2
Chelsea 2
Liverpool 7/2
AC Milan 4

To reach the final

Man Utd (3/5) Extrabet
Chelsea (4/6) Ladbrokes
Liverpool (11/10) Extrabet
AC Milan (6/5) Extrabet

RECOMMENDATION

Liverpool and Milan look the value to reach the final. Bet to small stakes for interest.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

European Recommendations

2007-04-15T05:21:00.000-07:00

All of the following bets require a Betting Exchange such as Betfair or Betdaq to LAY selections. LAY simply means you don't think that selection will win. When you LAY a team in a football match you have the opposition and the draw on your side.

So, if Inter Milan are playing Palermo and you LAY Inter Milan, you win if the match ends in a draw or Palermo win. Using this example, If you LAY Inter at 1.4 and your stake is £100 your liability (i.e. the amount you stand to lose) is £40 and your potential win is £100 minus the Betting Exchange commission.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

15 April 2007

Serie A
Inter Milan 1.4 v Palermo
Messina v AC Milan 1.57
Roma 1.6 v Sampdoria

Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen 2.3
Bayern Munich 1.53 v B.Leverkusen

Primera Liga
Gimnastic v Real Zaragoza 2.0
Getfae 2.25 v Villarreal
Athletic Madrid 1.66 v Levante

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the
Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen market and you lay Werder Bremen, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Werder Bremen. In this instance as near to 2.30 (13/10) as you can get. If Werder Bremen don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Werder Bremen win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Weekend Recommendations

2007-04-13T10:44:00.000-07:00

Grand National

2007-04-13T09:18:00.000-07:00

The Grand National is a great race and one which the bookmakers love as the housewives come out in force to have a fun 'punt'. It isn't to be taken very seriously as a race to make money from however.

If you want to have some fun with the National this weekend here's the way to do it.

The 'Backer's Book' - Prices supplied by Blue Square

Assume you fancy the following five horses to win the race and you have £50 stake money. You could divide your £50 equally into 5 x £10 bets or you could create a backer's book and stake according to the horses implied chances.

There is no rhyme nor reason to the horses selected, they are illustrative only.

Grand National

Joes Edge 9/1 (10.00%) (i.e. 9/1+1=10)

Numbersixvalverde 16/1 (5.89%)

Billyvoddan 16/1 (5.89%)

Simon 16/1 (5.89%)

Slim Pickings 33/1 (2.94%)

If we add the percentage chance implied by the odds together we get:

10 + 5.89 + 5.89 + 5.89 + 2.94 = 30.61 %

So, the Backer's percentage of the book is 30.61%. That is, by backing the five horses above the punter has 30.61% of the chances in the race.

We can now place appropriate stakes at the prevailing odds to get roughly the same winning returns should any of the five horses win.

The stakes on each horse should therefore be:

Joes Edge £16.40 @ 9/1 = £164

Numbersixvalverde £9.60* @ 16/1= £163.2

Billyvoddan £9.60 @16/1= £163.2

Simon £9.60 @ 16/1= £163.2

Slim Pickings £4.80 @ 33/1 = £163.2

A profit of £113.20 if any of the above horses win.

*To work out the stake £50 x 5.89/30.61 at 16/1 = £9.60 (to nearest 5p)

I have used an example from with five horses. It is a large field and their is ample opportunity to add more horses using the method above and still retain the prospect of a worthwhile win.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

UEFA Cup

2007-04-12T00:27:00.000-07:00

You may remember I suggested that bookmakers had got their prices all wrong about Alkmaar in the UEFA Cup. After their 0-0 first leg match at home I still believe they have an excellent chance of advancing in the competition. A score draw will do the job tonight and that's what I'm expecting.

At 16/1 in the outright market they are great value with William Hill and offer the opportunity to trade at a far reduced price for those that like to lock in a profit.

In the UKs Racing Post & Football Outlook's preview of the match it said, 'shock hunters take note...' and clearly consider Alkmaar's chances of getting a result against Werder Bremen as very slim. This shows ignorance towards how far the Dutch side have come in recent years. They also have a very shrewd coach in Louis Van Gaal. They are a very tidy outfit indeed and have beaten Seville in the UEFA Cup, PSV and drawn with Ajax away from home this year.

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Werder Bremen on Betfair 1.65

Alkmaar 16/1 UEFA Cup Outright with William Hill

UEFA Cup Win Market Betting Odds

(Traditional Bookmaker odds in brackets. Where Betfair list better prices they have been quoted to the Right)

Werder Bremen (11/4) Betfair 3.8
Sevilla (10/3) Betfair 4.5
Tottenham Extrabet 5/1
Osasuna (7/1) Betfair 8.2
Benfica (8/1) Betfair 9.4
Espanyol (12/1) Betfair 15.0
AZ Alkmaar William Hill 16/1
Bayer Leverkusen (150/1) Betfair 170

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Bayern v Milan

2007-04-11T00:15:00.000-07:00

Betting Exchanges v Bookmakers

Betfair
Bayern Munich BACK 2.4 LAY 2.42
AC Milan BACK 3.5 LAY 3.55
Draw BACK 3.3 LAY 3.35

Betting to 100.5% on the BACK side, 99.3% on the LAY side.

Betdaq
Bayern Munich BACK 2.4 LAY 2.44
AC Milan BACK 3.5 LAY 3.55
Draw BACK 3.3 LAY 3.35

Betting to 100.37% on the BACK side, 99.00% on the LAY side.

Traditional Bookmaker(s)
Bayern Munich (Bet365) 2.25 (5/4)
AC Milan (Bet 365) 3.2 (11/5)
Draw (Skybet) 3.4

Bet365, the best priced bookmaker for the home and away results have an overround of 108.00%. If you replace Bet365s price about the draw with Skybet's best price of 11/5 you are still trying to overcome an overround of 107%.

Munich have won 64% of their domestic home games this season compared to Milan's strike rate away from home of just 29% won and 57% drawn away from the San Siro.

RECOMMENDATION

This game is priced up just about right and looks too close to call. NO MATCH BET.

Small stakes advised on the following for interest:

Over 2.5 at 2.32 (Betfair) as Milan need to score and Bayern can catch them on the counter attack

and/or

Roy Makaay (Bayern Munich) To Score at 3.3 Betfair

..............................................................................

Bet365 had top prices about 71% of Easter Monday's games across the Premiership, Championship, League 1 and 2. The compilers at Coral and Bet Direct were clearly too busy eating Easter eggs to stick their necks out.

Best Price League Table - 9 April (Easter Monday)

Bet 365: Total 30 Home 13 Away 17
Blue Square: Total 19 Home 6 Away 13
Betfred : Total 18 Home 13 Away 5
Tote: Total 16 Home 10 Away 6
Ladbrokes: Total 12 Home 7 Away 5
Paddy Power: Total 12 Home 9 Away 3
VCBet: Total 9 Home 4 Away 5
William Hill: Total 7 Home 5 Away 2
Skybet: Total 7 Home 6 Away 1
Coral: Total 6 Home 4 Away 2
Bet Direct: Total 6 Home 3 Away 3

Note: Across Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview Valencia v Chelsea

2007-04-10T00:12:00.000-07:00

Valencia have not lost against English opposition at the Mestalla and I don't expect that to change this evening. Los Che's domestic form is not the best but they always seem to find a performance when it counts. And that might mean a tight, defensive performance to frustrate the Londoner's.

Valencia – Primera Liga
League Rank 5th
Home record 75.57% win, 7.14% draw, 14.29% Loss

Average Statistics 2006 - 2007
Average goals scored 2.1 - 0.7
Average goals conceded 0.7 – 1.3
Average time first goal scored 32 mins – 41 mins
Average time first goal conceded 57 mins – 37 mins
Average yellow cards 2.7 – 2.7
Average red cards 0.1 – 0.2
Average subs used 3.1 – 2.8
Biggest victory 4-0 – 1-0
Biggest defeat 2-0 – 3-0

Last 20 Double Results
Win-Win 8
Win-Draw 2
Win-Loss 0
Draw – Win 1
Draw- Draw 1
Draw – Loss 5
Loss – Win 0
Loss – Draw 0
Loss – Loss 3

Chelsea - Premiership
League Rank 2nd
Away record 69% win, 13% draw, 18% Loss

Average Statistics 2006 - 2007
Average goals scored 2.1 – 1.4
Average goals conceded 0.5 – 0.7
Average time first goal scored 33 mins – 44 mins
Average time first goal conceded 55 mins – 37 mins
Average yellow cards 1.1 – 2.1
Average red cards 0.1 – 0.1
Average subs used 2.7 – 2.6
Biggest victory 4-0 – 2-0
Biggest defeat n/a – 2-0

Last 20 Double Results

Win-Win 10
Win-Draw 1
Win-Loss 0
Draw – Win 2
Draw- Draw 3
Draw – Loss 0
Loss – Win 1
Loss – Draw 1
Loss – Loss 2

The betting - Betfair

Valencia Back 3.05 Lay 3.1
Chelsea Back 2.76 Lay 2.78
Draw Back 3.2 Lay 3.2

Tote are best price (traditional bookmaker) about Valencia at 7/4
Coral are best price (traditional bookmaker) about Chelsea at 7/4

If you fancy Valencia to win BACK them with Betfair.
If you fancy Chelsea to win BACK them with Coral as they are the same price and no commission will be deducted.

RECOMMENDATION

LAY Chelsea and post a price of 2.74 - 2.76 to get matched up.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Best Price League Table

2007-04-09T06:50:00.000-07:00

Coral and William Hill continue to bring up the rear with some woeful pricing across the weekends Easter action. Ladbrokes have knocked Bet365 off their perch to be Bookmaker of the Week.

It is worth noting that Betting Exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq beat most of the best prices offered by traditional bookmakers and that Betfair prices tend to be marginally better than those offered on Betdaq for UK football matches.

Best Price League Table - 7/8 April

Ladbrokes: Total 32 Home 15 Away 17
Bet Direct: Total 31 Home 18 Away 13
Bet 365: Total 26 Home 14 Away 12
Betfred : Total 21 Home 9 Away 12
Paddy Power: Total 19 Home 12 Away 7
Skybet: Total 18 Home 8 Away 10
Tote: Total 16 Home 10 Away 6
Blue Square: Total 16 Home 11 Away 5
VCBet: Total 14 Home 4 Away 10
Coral: Total 7 Home 4 Away 3
William Hill: Total 7 Home 6 Away 1

Note: Across Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, SPL, Scottish 1, 2 and 3.

Monday's league table and Valencia v Chelsea preview will be posted 10 April 2007.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Monday's Recommendations

2007-04-08T08:01:00.000-07:00

ALL recommendations listed below require the use of a Betting Exchange such as Betfair or Betdaq to enable us to LAY a selection. (i.e. Predict the team will not win)

And remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward. With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'. If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

9 April 2007

Barclays Premiership
Newcastle v Arsenal 2.2
Aston Villa 1.90 v Wigan
Bolton 2.25 v Everton

Coca-Cola Championship
Colchester v Leeds 3.6
Norwich v West Brom 2.64
Southampton v Sunderland 2.76

Coca-Cola League One
Bradford v Oldham 2.3
Gillingham v Bristol City 2.25
Northampton v Scunthorpe 2.20

Coca-Cola League Two
Grimsby v Wycombe 2.76
Wrexham v Notts County 3.0

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Bradford v Oldham market and you lay Oldham , you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Oldham. In this instance as near to 2.3 (13/10) as you can get. If Oldham don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Oldham win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Weekend Football Recommendations

2007-04-06T09:12:00.000-07:00

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward.

With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'. If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

7 April 2007

Premiership
Arsenal 1.50 v West Ham
Chelsea 1.44 v Tottenham

Championship
Crystal Palace V Preston 2.76
Luton v Southampton 2.20
Cardiff 1.90 v Sheffield Wednesday

League One
Port Vale v Carlisle 2.90
Oldham 1.80 v Huddersfield

League Two
Accrington v Peterbrough 2.50
Torquay v Walsall 2.10
Wycombe 2.20 v Shrewsbury

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Arsenal v West Ham market and you lay Arsenal , you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Arsenal . In this instance as near to 1.50 (1/2) as you can get. If Arsenal don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Arsenal win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

.................................................

England - Premiership

Two mouth watering London derbies...

Arsenal v West Ham
Can West Ham emulate last season's shock 3-2 win at Highbury? Arsenal have not lost at their new home, but have been shaky - drawing five times and having to come from behind on eleven occasions to maintain their unbeaten run. The Gunners were thrashed 4-1 at Anfield last weekend with Peter Crouch bagging three goals for the Reds. Can Argentine Carlos Tevez, who has scored in three consecutive games, heap more misery on Arsenal’s chances of automatic Champions League qualification?

RECOMMENDATION

Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea v Spurs
In November Spurs recorded their first win over Chelsea for 17 years, with the help of home advantage, but Chelsea took revenge in the FA Cup, with the help of a replay. The two quarter-finals produced nine goals, with the first game at Stamford Bridge ending 3-3. Chelsea looked jaded in their 1-0 victory at Vicarage Road and in the Champions league match against Valencia in midweek and goals could be on the cards against Spurs as both sides battle against the effects of fixture congestion.

RECOMMENDATION

Over 2.5 Goals

European Match Preview

2007-04-06T01:18:00.000-07:00

A quick round-up of the key games across the continent. Most recommendations require the use of a Betting Exchange such as Betfair or Betdaq to take advantage of better prices when BACKing combined with the ability to LAY a selection.

Please feel free to add a comment.

Italy - Serie A

Reggina v Inter Milan
Inter Milan, with a 20 point lead are sitting pretty at the top of Serie A and can already look forward to picking up the silverware at the end of the season. Reggina host the champions elect in a game which looks a foregone conclusion. Reggina have failed to score in the last six meetings between the clubs home & away and lost the corresponding fixture 4-0 last season. There is however, still a fight on for European places and a relegation battle to whet the appetite.

Inter 1.82 on Betfair
Inter 1.66 (4/6) Blue Square

RECOMMENDATION
Inter are a value bet this weekend and 1.82 should be grabbed. Inter will want to make it mathematically impossible to be caught and beating Reggina will be a big step towards that goal.
........................................

AC Milan v Empoli
AC Milan & Empoli is an interesting match this weekend as they fight it out for a place in next seasons Champions League. Empoli are currently fifth in Serie A, with Milan trailing them by a point in sixth place. Empoli’s success this season has stemmed from their home form. They are not the best on the road and have won just four away games this season. This combined with an 80% losing record at the San Siro means Empoli will have it all to do to prevent Milan leapfrogging them in the chase for Euro qualification.

Milan will once again have one eye on next week’s away leg at Bayern Munich. Having conceded two goals at home they really need to ensure they qualify for next season’s tournament through their domestic league.

Milan 1.52 on Betfair
Milan 1.44 (4/9) Bet365

RECOMMENDATION
Milan are not worth risking at a best price of (1.44) 4/9 with Bet365 and even 1.52 (8/13) on Betfair does not get the pulse racing. Milan would have to be 4/6 (1.66) to be considered a value bet in this match.

NO BET

........................................

Germany - Bundesliga

Werder Bremen v Nurnburg
Werder Bremen host Bundesliga draw specialists Nurnberg (FCN) this weekend. FCN have drawn over half their (52%) games this season and Bremen may find it hard going in the Weserstadion after playing in last nights tough UEFA Cup clash with crack Dutch outfit AZ Alkmaar (0-0). W Bremen have a 69% strike rate at home but it is easy to make a case for the draw this time out.

RECOMMENDATION
Under 2.5 goals looks the call as half of FCNs stalemates have ended 0-0 or
LAY Werder Bremen 1.61 with Betfair.

........................................

Hannover v Bayern Munich
Since Hitzfeld returned as manager of Bayern Munich in February of this year the club has been growing in confidence after a so far disappointing season which sees them six points off the pace. Munich are unbeaten in eight games at the Allianz Arena but their away form is questionable after losing their last 5 matches on the road. This weekend they play away to Hannover 96 who have only won 3 times at home all season.

RECOMMENDATION
NO BET

........................................

Spain - Primera Liga

Real Zaragoza v Barcelona
Real Zaragoza play Barcelona at La Romereda on Saturday. Zaragoza have a decent home record (64% win) and are 5th in La Liga. They are unbeaten in six matches in their own backyard and that includes a 2-1 win over title chasing Seville. This, married with Barcelona’s very average 35% strike rate away from home makes this an intriguing encounter.

RECOMMENDATION
You can currently LAY Barcelona at the same price as the best priced bookmaker 2.10 (11/10) and that’s the shout to hedge the draw and home win.

........................................

Seville v Racing Santander
Seville need to keep the heat on Barca at the top of the table and will be desperate for three points against Racing Santander. It is an important game for Racing too as they attempt to snatch a European UEFA place next season. Seville have an awesome home record (85% wins). This pitted against Racing’s ordinary away record – 21% win, 50% draw, 29% loss makes Seville hot favourites and are currently available to Back at 1.67 and 1.70 to Lay.

RECOMMENDATION
1.67 is short for Seville to win the match but that would appear to be the most likely outcome. A 1-0 home correct score to small stakes looks about right. Available to back on Betfair at 7.0

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Midweek Recommendations Continued...

2007-04-05T05:02:00.000-07:00

More Midweek Football Tips.

With a 100% record so far this week it will be a challenge to complete a clean sweep with some competitive games in the UEFA Cup tonight but here goes...

'Linked' teams to be 'layed' at Betfair or Betdaq.

If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

5 April, UEFA Cup

AZ Alkmaar v W Bremen 2.6
B.Leverkusen1.8 v Osasuna
Espanyol 2.3 V Benfica
Seville v Tottenham Draw 3.3

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the AZ Alkmaar v W Bremen market and you lay W Bremen, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back W Bremen. In this instance as near to 2.6 (8/5) as you can get. If W Bremen don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If W Bremen win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com. If you have an interest in using betting exchanges to bet on horses click here for more information.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Midweek Recommendations

2007-04-03T09:54:00.000-07:00

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward.

With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'. If you have any comments on the selections below please feel free to add a comment.

3 April

Championship
QPR V Preston 2.4

Champions League
Milan 2.1 v Munich
PSV 3.1 v Liverpool

4 April

Champions League
Chelsea 1.72 v Valencia
Roma v Man United 2.76

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Chelsea v Valencia market and you lay Chelsea, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Chelsea. In this instance as near to 1.72 (8/11) as you can get. If Chelsea don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Chelsea win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com. If you have an interest in using betting exchanges to bet on horses click here for more information.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Best Price Table

2007-04-03T00:28:00.000-07:00

The recurring theme of Bet365 at the top and Coral at the bottom continues. Quite how Coral are getting any football business at the moment is beyond me. Bet 365 are rising to the challenges of Betting Exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq.

It just goes to show you how important it is to have a betting exchange in your betting armoury and a selection of bookmakers to take advantage of, in some instances, vast price differences.

Best Price League Table 31/1 (March/April)

Bet 365: Total 32 Home 15 Away 17
Skybet: Total 29 Home 10 Away 19
Bet Direct: Total 24 Home 20 Away 4
Tote: Total 23 Home 12 Away 11
Blue Square: Total 19 Home 11 Away 8
Betfred : Total 19 Home 4 Away 15
Ladbrokes: Total 18 Home 8 Away 10
Paddy Power: Total 16 Home 9 Away 7
William Hill: Total 13 Home 11 Away 3
Coral: Total 10 Home 4 Away 6
VCBet: Total 10 Home 3 Away 7

Note: Across Premiership, Championship, League 1, League 2, SPL, Scottish 1, 2 and 3.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview

2007-04-02T09:50:00.000-07:00

Match Preview Aston Villa - Everton

Aston Villa Home Form
Wins 40%
Draws 33%
Losses 27%
Clean Sheets 7

Everton Away Form
Wins 27%
Draws 40%
Losses 33%
Clean Sheets 5

Managerial Career - O'Neill v Moyes

O'Neill, Aston Villa Games 34 Won 26.47% Lost 35.29% Draw 38.24%
Moyes, Eveton Games 220 Won 38.64% Lost 37.73% Draw 23.64%

Odds available on Betfair
Aston Villa Back 2.52 Lay 2.54
Everton Back 3.3 Lay 3.35
Draw Back 3.25 Lay 3.3

Best Prices at the Bookies
VC Bet Aston Villa 7/5 (2.4)
Bet Fred Everton 2/1 (3.0)
VC Bet Draw 9/4 (3.25)

ASTON VILLA are value on Betfair at 2.52 (the stats suggest they are a 6/4 shot at home) but it is marginal. Everton are without Tim Cahill (for the remainder of the season) who makes a big difference to the way they play and the results they achieve.

BACK Aston Villa at 2.52 or better. Or LAY Everton between a range of 3.3 - 3.35 to hedge the draw.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Match Preview

2007-03-31T02:36:00.000-07:00

Hibernian v Hearts (Head to Head)

Hibernian wins
63 League, 9 FA Cup, 1 League Cup

Draws
73 League, 7 FA Cup, 0 League Cup

Hearts wins
105 League, 12 FA Cup, 4 League Cup

Total
Hibernian 73, Hearts 121, Draw 80

Hibernians form overall record (30 games)
40% wins 23% Draws, 37% Lose (Clean sheets 10)

Hibernians home form (15 games)
53% Wins 33% Draws, 13% Lose (Clean sheets 5)

Current league rank 5th

Hearts form overall record (31 games)
42% Wins 29% Draws, 29% Lose (Clean sheets 4)

Hearts away form (15 games)
40% Wins 20% Draws, 40% Lose (Clean sheets 7)
Current league rank 4th

Odds available on Betfair
Hibernian Back 2.3 Lay 2.32
Hearts Back 3.6 Lay 3.8
Draw Back 3.35 Lay 3.5

HIBERNIAN will be buzzing after their Cup Final triumph against Kilmarnock and remain unbeaten at Easter Road against Hearts since 2002. Romanov, the bearded lady of football benefactors is slowly ruining Hearts and HIBERNIAN will look to heap more misery on the Lithuanian this Sunday. Hearts can't catch a break at the moment. Even their Lithuanian forward Edgaras Jankauskas could miss out after his passport was pinched whilst paying a visit to his homeland.

It will no doubt be a fiery affair but take the HIBEES to come out on top.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Weekend Recommendations

2007-03-31T01:38:00.000-07:00

Remember with betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq you can not only lay any selection, but also choose the price/odds you want to take, and how much you are prepared to risk (your liability). The shorter the price you wish to lay, the less money you risk compared to your potential reward.

With the following bets you are attempting to create the market rather than follow it.

'Linked' teams to be 'layed'.

Saturday 31st March

Premiership
West Ham v Middlesbrough 3.25
Liverpool v Arsenal 3.4

Championship
Colchester 2.10 v Norwich

League One
Bristol City v Nottingham Forest 3.2
Millwall v Swansea 2.75

League Two
Hereford v Milton Keynes 2.38

Scottish Premier
Kilmarnock v Aberdeen 2.6

Notes & Explanation: Try and get as near as possible to these prices. If the market isn't close to these levels be patient or adjust to a level you are comfortable with. When you 'lay' a selection, you are betting against it winning. For example, if you're betting in the Kilmarnock v Aberdeen market and you lay Aberdeen, you offer odds to other punters who wish to back Aberdeen. In this instance as near to 2.6 as you can get. If Aberdeen don't win, then you pick up the backer's stake minus commission. If Aberdeen win, then you pay out.

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com. If you have an interest in using betting exchanges to bet on horses click here for more information.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Match Preview

2007-03-30T13:59:00.000-07:00

Liverpool v Arsenal (Head to Head)

Liverpool wins
67 League, 5 FA Cup, 5 League Cup wins

Draws
40 League, 4 FA Cup, 5 League Cup

Arsenal wins
58 League, 7 FA Cup, 4 League Cup wins

Total
Liverpool 77, Arsenal 69, Draw 48

Rafael Benitez's Liverpool managerial career
Won 55.95%, Lost 25%, Drawn 19.05%

Arsene Wenger's managerial career
Won 57.26%, Lost 19.9%, Drawn 24.75%

Liverpool form LWWLLd Home form LWdWll
Season stats, Home: 73% win 20% draw 7% loss Clean sheets 11

Arsenal form LLWDWL, Away form DWLLWL
Season stats, Away: 47% win 13% draw 40% loss Clean sheets 5

Odds available on Betfair

Liverpool Back 2.3 Lay 2.34
Arsenal Back 3.65 Lay 3.7
Draw Back 3.3 Lay 3.35

Liverpool's dominance at home and Arsenal's less than impressive away form point to a LIVERPOOL WIN. Alternatively Lay Arsenal to hedge the draw.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Tennis Recommendations

2007-03-30T09:05:00.000-07:00

(Miami Masters) Sony Ericsson Open

'Linked' players to be 'layed'.

Semi Finals

Andy Murray v Djokovic 1.65

Canas 1.76 v Ljubicic

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

Primera Liga Preview

2007-03-30T08:42:00.000-07:00

Barcelona's exit from the Champion's League was a massive disappointment to the Catalan club and recent key La Liga results have also been underwhelming. They will be looking for a return to form against Deportivo La Coruna who will be without their top scorer Javier Arizmendu. Barcelona's record against Depor hasn't been great in recent times and they haven't covered the +1.5 Handicap since 1999. Barcelona will be short enough to Lay (1.35) after their players involvement in Spains Euro Qualifier this week.

Real Madrid look to have a victory in waiting as they visit Celta Vigo. Madrid's away form has been better (8 wins) than when they play in the capital (6 wins) and Vigo have the worst home record in La Liga with only one win.

The big question in Spain is when will Seville choke in their battle with Barca for the Primera Liga title? They are still chasing honours on three fronts and something has got to give with their squad size and fixture congestion. Osasuna host Seville this Sunday and it is likely to be a hotly contested affair after Osasuna pipped them to the final Champions League spot last year. A hard game to call but Under 2.5 goals could be the key to unlocking profit from the game.

Serie A Match Preview

2007-03-30T07:58:00.000-07:00

Roma currently have a nine point cushion on their city rivals Lazio (in third position) so we can expect some players to be rested for their clash with Milan in view of their tough Champions League game at home to Manchester United next week.

And although Milan (5th in table) are also playing in the Champions League against Bayern Munich their outlook will be very different going into this clash as every league point counts for the Rosseneri in capturing a Champions League renewal next season.

Roma have only lost one game in 31 in all competitions, and are unbeaten against Milan this season. Roma rightly start as favourites but given their Champions League distraction they are worth taking on this weekend. (They are currently 2.58 to lay on Betfair so you should look to shorten that and offer around the 2.5 mark)

Inter Milan are certainties for the Serie A title and should have little problem at home to Parma who are second bottom and fighting for their lives. Given the two teams respective positions it could be worth laying Inter on the basis that your liability will be low and complacency may set in with such a comfortable lead in the title race. (Currently 1.31 on Betfair)

Premiership Preview

2007-03-30T03:30:00.000-07:00

The key clash of the weekend will be played out at Anfield where Liverpool take on Arsenal. At stake, the crucial 3rd automatic qualification spot for next season's Champions League. Arsenal have a fair record at Liverpool this year albeit in the cup. The Gunners also served up a 3-0 drubbing at the Emirates Stadium so it is fair to say Liverpool will be looking for some revenge.

The last few weeks has seen Arsenal's season fall apart as they were knocked out of all cup competitions in quick succession. They will be taking on Liverpool without the talismanic Henry and the young whipper snappers Walcott & Persie. Arsenal have failed to win in eight out of fifteen away matches this season and Liverpool look set to take the spoils in the 12.45 kick off.

Steve Mclaren has had a week to forget off the back of some miserable displays from his team and he isn't the only one to get a headache from this weeks Euro Qualifiers. Sir Alex Ferguson is sweating on the fitness of Ronaldo who is doubtful after picking up a knock on duty with Portugal. United are already short on strikers so the absence of Ronaldo could create a real problem for the Red Devils.

Blackburn are showing good form at the moment losing just one of their last seven games, their last outing at home to struggling West Ham, in which they were robbed by some astonishingly bad refereeing decisions. Man Utd could well be worth taking on this weekend especially as they may have one eye on the Champions league next week.

Frank Lampard is a different player at Chelsea, better players around him, better manager to motivate him and even with a broken wrist, should he start the match, Chelsea will despatch of Watford with no problem at all.

Liverpool v Arsenal in detail coming soon...

Tennis Recommendations

2007-03-29T08:38:00.000-07:00

Andy Murray has already advanced to the semi-finals of the Miami Masters after his last eight opponent Andy Roddick limped out through injury.

There are still two quarter final matches to go and it is worth taking on the favourites by laying both Canas and Ljubicic.

(Miami Masters) Sony Ericsson Open

Quarter Finals

Canas 1.59 v Robredo

Ljubicic 1.5 v Chela

For a beginners guide to Betting Exchanges and Fixed odds betting, visit top5bet.com.

If you have an interest in using betting exchanges to bet on horses click here for more information.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Disclaimer: This weblog is based on independent research. It does not constitute financial advice. Any information should be considered in regard to your own specific circumstances. All tips and recommendations are followed at your own risk and should be followed up with your own research.

*Please refer to terms & conditions for each Free Bet offered.

World Cup Cricket

2007-03-28T00:24:00.000-07:00

Although I have tried, it is hard to miss the sinister goings on at the Cricket World Cup. I have never found cricket a great betting medium (or sport) and any game where the outcome can be potentially decided by the weather is not worth my hard earned cash.

The murder of Pakistan coach Bob Woolmer has resulted in lots of speculation and rumours that he was killed to stop him blowing the lid wide open on match-fixing in cricket.

It is worth pointing out that, although it is described as match-fixing it is in fact more likely to be less about the result of a game and more about the make up and flow of a game and getting a team to underperform at the margins.

The smaller parts that make up a cricket match, such as who will be put into bat first (on winning the coin toss) or the timing of a declaration has become a betting industry within an industry known as 'spot betting' and there are many examples of bookmakers and/or illegal betting syndicates attempting - and sometimes succeeding - to bribe influential players (e.g. Hanse Cronje) and even umpires for valuable information.

A lot of this happens because gambling is illegal. Where gambling is illegal it doesn't go away it simply goes underground which means unusual betting patterns can evade detection for longer and the wrong sort of people can assume control of the gambling networks.

Taking Pakistan as an example. Gambling is illegal for religious reasons. It still happens on a massive scale though and all without an appropriate regulatory framework to support it. You will remember that America recently made financial transactions to online gamblling sites illegal. (As if George Bush doesn't have enough on his plate with the war in Iraq and people shooting school children!)

Sticking your head in the ground and ignoring gambling in its many forms for religious or political reasons is sheer stupidity and as we have seen in the West Indies can cause a lot more harm in the long run.

My recommendation would be to make Cricket illegal instead!

Midweek Recommendations

2007-03-27T01:06:00.000-07:00

Best Price League Table

2007-03-26T00:29:00.000-07:00

Bet 365 retained their top of the table position by a country mile with a massive 35 best price games chalked up. Trailing in their wake were Ladbrokes with 25 and Skybet and Tote on 24. Coral leapt off the bottom with a respectable 5th place on the board with 21 best price matches. Betfred shrunk into their shell with a pathetic 14 best price games.

England flattered to deceive with their miserable 0-0 against Israel. The only people happy with that result were Bet 365 and Ladbrokes who were joint best price about Three Lions at 5/6.

Best Price League Table 24/25th March

Bet 365: Total 35 Home 14 Away 21
Ladbrokes: Total 25 Home 13 Away 12
Skybet: Total 24 Home 13 Away 16
Tote: Total 24 Home 7 Away 10
Coral: Total 21 Home 10 Away 11
Bet Direct: Total 20 Home 12 Away 8
William Hill: Total 20 Home 10 Away 11
Blue Square: Total 17 Home 5 Away 12
Paddy Power: Total 16 Home 6 Away 10
VCBet: Total 15 Home 7 Away 8
Betfred : Total 14 Home 8 Away 6

Note: Across Euro 2008 Qualifiers, League 1, League 2 and Scottish 2 and 3.

Scott Mowbray
top5bet.com

Remember to enter the code 7K3R4QFNT into the Refer and Earn box when you sign up for your Betfair account to claim your free £20 bet!